Who Loses Most (And Who Actually Wins) If An Entire NFL Season Is Cancelled?

Note from Neumann: This marks our first foray into guest columns (unless you count those 2 columns written early on by the mysterious "Kyle" who then vanished into thin air). The first entry comes from Mike Petty, my college roommate and best friend- except when the Giants play the Cowboys. Mike's column appears here unedited by the Sunday At 1 editorial board (me and my Ultimate Warrior wrestling buddy). In exchange for this freedom, Mike has promised to allow me to wear my Clubber Lang shirt to his wedding. Join me again at the end of the article for my thoughts.

Never allow your guest host (or columnist) to get too comfortable. It you do, he ends up forcing you out and usurping your desired (and much more talented) successor.










As the impending doom of the NFL lockout gets closer every day it brings up an interesting topic: Hypothetically if the entire season was not played who stands to benefit and whom will be most effected by a lockout?

Winners:

• The NHL - a league looking to get back into the mainstream discussion, has made leaps and bounds using the Winter Classic, re-kindling rivalries like the Flyers-Penguins, Penguins-Capitals, Bruins-Canadiens, and Blackhawks-Red Wings. Lurking would be ESPN looking to fill its live programming slots and a step up from the Versus network would be accepted by all involved with the NHL. Don't count out the NBA as the momentum of this past offseason and the trade deadline has it as popular as it has been in recent years.
•  Matt Stafford/Bob Sanders - they can't get hurt not playing, can they?
•  Carolina Panthers - no way Andrew Luck says no to the #1 pick two years in a row, can he?
•  Los Angeles - the swell of support and momentum continues to grow for a city who has already secured the naming rights for a stadium they haven't even built. I'll be the millionth person to make this statement but, it won't be long before at least one NFL team is in LA. Early money is on the Jaguars but it will be interesting to watch the stadium situations in Minnesota, St. Louis, Buffalo and San Diego. Some of these teams may not survive a lockout in their current cities and LA will gladly offer them a home
•  College football - no NFL on Sunday will push fans to get their football fix in other places. Ratings and interest should be at an all-time high as the only game in town
•  Ricky Williams - all kinds of time to "relax"
•  Attrition - surely two years of NFL draft prospects coming into the league would rid NFL fans of having to watch players like Brodie Croyle, LenDale White, Yamon Figurs, Arnaz Battle, Kyle Boller, Charlie Frye, and J.T. O'Sullivan. I'll leave it up to you to figure out which were the 3 QB's who finished the year on the Oakland Raiders roster not named Jason Campbell or Bruce Gradkowski. Keep up the good work, Al.

In 6 months, Al Davis will be dead a year. If there is a lockout, he will go back to hosting Tales From The Crypt.










Losers:

• Fans - self-explanatory. Clearly the biggest losers in a lockout scenario. No one wants to hear about millionaire players who aren't receiving a paycheck. They've had plenty of time to plan for a lockout and for most players one game check is more than most of us will see in a year.
•  Mid-30's superstars - Tom Brady/Peyton Manning - with only a few years left in their potentially record setting careers, losing a year could have historic repercussions. Manning sits at 399 TD's and is approaching 55,000 yards while Brady is coming off his most well rounded season showing the only thing that may be able to stop these two is a lockout
•  Mid 30's past stars - have we seen the final game for players like Ray Lewis, LaDanian Tomlinson, Terrell Owens, Jason Taylor, Carson Palmer, Ed Reed, and Ronde Barber?
•  Tampa Bay Bucs/Atlanta Falcons/Green Bay Packers - these are just 3 teams that are up and coming and were primed to make another leap next season. Sounds funny to say that about the #1 seed in the NFC and the current Super Bowl champs but a healthy Green Bay squad figures to be even better and Atlanta would come in with a chip on their shoulder from being pushed aside by the public and media long before the Packers did it in the Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman and his #1 fan Bill Simmons miss out on his push to be more than the McNabb's and Culpepper's that came before him.
•  Sam Bradford/Dez Bryant/Colt McCoy - young players ready to take the next step and be talked in the same breath as players they grew up watching in only their 2nd year. Bryant was easily the most entertaining and, at times, the hardest working player on a miserable team. Bradford performed miracles with a pitiful receiving core leading the Rams to a six game improvement. McCoy, when healthy, made it easier for Browns fan's to forget about the 15 QB's who've started for Cleveland since 2000.
• Future draft picks - no matter when the lockout ends there is little doubt that a new rookie pay scale will be in place paying rookies far less money than current and past rookies have received
• Baseball fans ears - no football means a lot more Joe Buck. Just tell yourself when Buck talks it keeps Tim McCarver quiet and we should make it through
• The city of Indianapolis - if there were to be no Super Bowl, the NFL no doubt would make it up to Indy but not hosting the event would surely impact the city and it's businesses that were planning on having it.
• Antonio Cromartie's indeterminate number of children - no money coming from Dad means less money to be split what 8-9 ways?

The owner of this site has decided to post a picture unrelated to the article in an effort to shame the guest columnist.

......A lockout is the last thing any fan wants but by all accounts its coming. So join a gym, pick up a hobby, or spend time with family but come this fall it's likely our Sunday's are going to be empty. There will be no bad betting advice from Cousin Sal, no Ed Hoculi biceps, no Tony Siragusa interrupting the play by play, no Ditka, no Andy Reid to not understand what a clock is, no Eli/Peyton face, and no Terry Bradshaw doing a Gary Busey impression over highlights. So here's to hoping for a Flutie-like Hail Mary to make this article irrelevant because without football Sunday will become just another day of the week.

Neumann again: So what do you think? There's some interesting stuff here, especially in the Winner's section. The LA argument is very interesting, as that seems to be gaining more momentum. While a team like the Jaguars may actually be better off with their doors shut for a year, can they really expect an already anemic fanbase to support them when they return from a prolonged work stoppage? As for the NHL and college football, they'd probably gain something from no NFL, but I think the gains would be minimal. People who get together every Sunday to watch NFL aren't suddenly going to through their allegiance to a college team, especially in the Northeast, where from Boston to DC, there are roughly 3 legit big-time college teams (Boston College, Penn State and Pitt).

Personally I hold out more hope than Mike seems to that a deal will get done, but if you're not at least a little worried there won't be a 2011 season, you're not paying much attention.

If you'd like to contribute to Sunday At 1, please e-mail me at andrewneumann86@gmail.com If you'd like to get in touch with the writer of this article directly, travel to St. Louis and commit a crime. As always, comments are encouraged below.

Way to Know the Situation, Coach

How this gentleman keeps his job year after year is simply the greatest mystery in NFL history. This guy has done everything I'm about to talk about below, and keeps inventing new ways to make in-game mistakes.

 

Apologies for the lay-off in posting. I was away for a few days this week, which eliminated my mid-week post. Considering how action-packed the NFL landscape is the weeks after the Super Bowl, I’m sure you missed my analysis on all the news, like the NFL and the NFLPA agreeing to talk to each other with someone else in the room. That mediator has no authority to enforce a ruling, but still, I guess it’s a step in the right direction. Only a few thousand more steps in that same direction, and maybe we’ll have a season come September.

I’m not as smart as NFL coaches. Often times, I’ll watch a game and be arm chair coaching, only to come upon a decision that’s impossible to make. All of a sudden I’ll say “I’m glad it’s not my call.” Because despite all the football I watch, the years I’ve played, and the fact that I pretend to be an expert, most of the time the coach makes the right decision, and I’m either agreeing with them, or advocating for what would be the wrong call.

That said, there’s a few situations where I am constantly befuddled by what standard operating procedure for an NFL coach is. The reason coaches make the incorrect decision in some of these situations is simple- there’s just not many game situations in the NFL. In baseball, over the course of 3 or 4 seasons, a baseball manager presides over hundreds of games, and comes into contact with nearly every late-game scenario. But in the NFL, there are only 16 games a season. Logic dictates that at least 8 of those games won’t come down to the final few minutes. That means that coaches just don’t get a ton of experience in specific situations like they do in other sports. Like I said before, most of the time, I think they get their moves right, even if they don’t pay off in the end. But, here a few situations that coaches usually screw up, and are more often than not lauded by commentators.

This guy has had a ton of success as a coach, but let's be honest- his clock management sucks. He basically invented leaving points on the board before Halftime by going to a touchdown while inside of field goal range and running out of time. 













(All of these teams are just random teams, not indicative of real situations, or a specific team’s proclivity towards bungling this situation)

Situation: Dolphins trail Jets 23-14 with 3:15 to go. They have the ball on the Jets 38, 1^st and 10 with 2 Timeouts left.

What Most Teams Do: Continue to run their 2-minute offense, trying to get into the end zone. After all, you need two scores anyway, so why not go for the Touchdown first?

What Always Happens: Miami gets inside the Jets 30 with 2:45 to go. The Jets are playing prevent, trying to prevent a big play. Dolphins get short passes and QB sneaks to get into the red zone at 2:00 warning. Miami finally gets into the end zone with 1:15 to go and 2 time-outs. But since they waited so long, they have to onside kick. The Jets recover the onside kick and pound the ball into the line. Miami uses both timeouts, and the Jets run on 3^rd down.  Jets run the clock to 25 seconds and punt deep into Dolphin territory. Miami left with 65 yards to go with no time-outs and 15 seconds. Cue a play with 11 laterals. Jets win.

What They Should Do: KICK THE FIELD GOAL! As soon as Miami gets into comfortable field goal range, you take 1 shot deep and then take the points. As soon as Miami crosses the Jets 30, they should get the 3. With less than 3 time-outs, the most important thing here is avoiding the onside kick. That means scoring before the 2-minute warning. So in my scenario, Miami takes the 3 points with 2:38 to go. They then are able to kick away, and with the 2 minute warning and two time-outs, then can potentially get the ball back in decent field positions, with just about 1:50 to play. True, you have no time-outs and need a touchdown, but you’re in better field position and have more time. It’s still a low percentage situation, but still a hell of a lot better than relying on an onside kick.

Why They Blow It: Coaches are trained to get as close as possible, under any circumstance. The prospect of only being down 2 or 3 seems so much better than being down 6 or 7. But they neglect the clock. They think as long as we control the ball, we’ll be fine. But onside kicks only convert 20-30 percent of the time, depending on the year. Certainly it’s better to put your Defense on the field and get a stop, rather than relying on catching a lucky bounce.

Situation: Saints down 15 to Atlanta with 6:40 left in the 4^th. Quarter. New Orleans scores a touchdown, putting them down 9 with the Extra Point/ 2 Point Conversion pending.

What Most Teams Do:  Kick the Extra Point. That way you’re still only down one possession. You can always get the conversion after your next touchdown.

What Always Happens: New Orleans takes the extra point and goes down 8. They kick away and get Atlanta to punt with 4:00 to go. New Orleans goes into their 2-minute offense and moves down the field. Since this is their last drive, they slow down once they get deep into Atlanta territory. Ultimately they score with 45 seconds left and have to go for two. They miss the conversion and have to onside kick. See the previous situation for what happens next. Atlanta gets the ball and takes a knee. Game over. Saints lose.

What They Should Do: Saints go for two first. That way, New Orleans knows exactly where they stand. If they make the conversion, then they’re down 7. No complication there. If they miss it, they’re down 9, but at least they have 6 minutes to play accordingly. (Which if you’re paying attention, means go for the Field Goal first). New Orleans knows they’ll need a two-point conversion anyway, but the earlier they go for it, the more time they have to get two scores.

Why They Blow It: NFL coaches have a million decisions to make. They’d rather put one off if possible. And justifiably, the argument for going for the extra point there is that the other team still may score and change the situation. But honestly, if you’re down 8 or 9 that late and the other team scores again, you’re probably going to lose anyway. So go for the two, and then adjust.

 I really don't even need to explain why he's on here, do I?

Situation: Seahawks and Rams tied. Rams on Seattle 3 with 1:01 remaining. Seattle has all 3 time-outs. 1^st and Goal for St. Louis.

What Most Teams Do: Play your goal-line D like there’s no tomorrow. Burn time-outs. Hope to force St. Louis to a Field Goal.

What Always Happens: One of two things. Seattle either succeeds in holding St. Louis to a field goal, which comes with 30 seconds left and the Seahawks out of time-outs, or even worse, they stop the Rams twice, kill 2 time-outs, and watch St. Louis score with 45 seconds left. Either way, the Seahawks probably lose.

What They Should Do: Let them score. The Rams score on their first play with 58 seconds remaining. Now Seattle is down 7, but they have all of their time-outs left. This one is a little tougher because you’re down 7 as opposed to 3. But more than likely, you’re not stopping a team from getting 3 yards on 3 plays. So you concede you’re in a weaker position, and try to buy all the time you can.

Why They Blow It: Come on. You’re expecting an NFL Head Coach, who probably spent 100 hours on his game plan that week, to allow the other team to score in the final minute of the game? Very unlikely. Actually, there is a famous example of a coach doing this: Mike Holmgren allowing Terrell Davis to score in Super Bowl 32. Since it didn’t work, it never became part of the standard operating procedure.

SITUATION:  Anytime in the game. Giants have 3^rd and 7 from Eagles 40.

What Most Teams Do: Go for the first down. After all, it’s 3^rd and 7.

What Always Happens: Not always, but often enough: the Giants don’t pick it up. Since its 4^th and 7, New York has to punt. The ball goes into the end zone, and your punt has netted 20 yards.

What They Should Do: Run the ball. You’re going to go for it on 4^th down, as long as it’s manageable. So with Philly playing for the pass, run a draw and get it down 4^th and 3 at the 36. Now you’re in a manageable 4^th down situation.

Why They Blow It: Because, as an overriding theme, NFL coaches don’t think about the next play, the next drive, or the next quarter. They believe that everything they do will work if executed correctly, so they scheme themselves right out of options. That’s why, as Bill Simmons has suggested, coaches should have a guy who sits over his shoulder and who’s sole job is to manage clock situations and contemplate all the possible outcomes.

Situation: Bills up 7 on Raiders, 0:35 to go. Bills have the ball, Raiders out of time-outs.

What Always Happens: …..This is an impossible scenario. The Bills are never beating anyone this late in the game.

So, what do you think? The first two I am an advocate of and constantly scream about. The second two  I admittedly see the gray in. Do you disagree with any of my argument about what should be done? Have situations of your own? Let me know what you think.

Creating The Writers Block

What do New Years Day, the day after we set the clocks back to Standard Time and today have in common?

They’re the 3 most depressing days of the year.

Watching the Christmas decorations come down and the sun set at 4:15 are awful enough, but nothing compares in horror to the site of turning on Fox on Sunday at 1 (see what I did there) and seeing some show where people get hurt skiing come on. During football season, Sunday is a part of the weekend, often times the best part. But during the other 7 months of the year, it’s barely even a day off. It’s a day you have to pay your bills, run errands, and do laundry. For some reason, during football season you don’t do any of that stuff on Sunday and it still gets done during the week.

Now some people will say “Oh, there’s plenty of other sports on Sundays now.” That’s true. Today there were NHL games, NBA games, and college basketball games. During the summer there’s always baseball on. And I like all of those sports. But regular season hockey, baseball, and basketball really isn’t the same. You can try to convince yourself otherwise, but you know you’re kidding yourself.

So where does that leave us?

Well, we’re at best 30 weeks from Week 1 of the 2011 NFL Season. Between now and then, one topic will dominate the NFL news, and that’s obviously the labor talks. I personally want to write a few columns about it, but honestly, there’s not going to be any shortage of coverage on that. I doubt anyone would come here to learn anything other than my particular take on the issues, which I’ll provide. I have a few ideas for some other pieces I’d like to write, the top one being “A List of Things NFL Coaches Consistently Do Wrong.” If you’ve ever watched me scream “Kick The Field Goal” at a team down 10 with 3 minutes to go, I think you know what will be at the top of that list.

But it’s along off-season, and I’m not vain enough to think you’re interested in hearing only from me for the next 7 months. So I’m going to turn it over to one of the greatest Americans of all time to help me.

That’s right, Apollo and I (and Kyle, remember him?) want your help with Sunday At 1. We’re looking for people who want to write. It's time to assemble our full staff of contributors, from here on out known as The Writers Block. Obviously this is a pretty low-key blog, so we don’t have any strict rules on what you can and can’t write, but here’s a few basic guidelines/ suggestions:

1. Be Able to Commit to At Least 1 Piece a Week.

People are busy, we get that. And I’m not interested in making people do something they don’t want to. Eventually we’ll be open to guest columns on a one-off basis. But right now, I’m looking for those who want to contribute regularly. Doesn’t have to be every day, or even every Wednesday, but one a week is the minimum right now.

2. Have Something to Discuss Besides Your Favorite Team

One of my biggest fears is that left to my own devices I’ll turn this into a Giants blog. Obviously, I don’t hide my allegiances on here. That said, if you’re only interested in talking about the Eagles, Jets, or Jaguars (that last one is a joke) maybe a guest column or two later on is a better fit.

3.  You Don’t Need to Know Much, Except How to Be Interesting

No one is coming to this blog for breaking news, or analysis on how the Cover 2 works against New England’s 3 WR set. I played football for 11 years, and watch basically every NFL game all season. This gives me a pretty good wealth of knowledge about situations that come up a lot, and basic gameplanning. But I still don’t know anything, comparatively speaking. The best columns for this blog express opinions on current topics in the NFL. We don’t need a game recap, and we sure don’t need it to be groundbreaking. So if you’d like to write but are worried you may not know enough of the intricacies, don’t worry about it. Being interesting is a lot more important. Out best feedback so far came from my piece about Super Bowl 42, which was more about the art of being a fan than it was about the giants and the Patriots.

So there we are. If you’re interested, shoot me an e-mail at andrewneumann86@gmail.com or leave me a message on Facebook or on this blog. We don’t have a set number of people in mind, so the more the merrier right now. Any questions, feel free to be in touch.

3 And Out: The Start of the Labor Nonsense

"We're All Screwed. That's What."

I feel more and more like Tom Smykowski every time I read about the NFL Labor "negotiations." Someone get these guys a Jump to  Conclusion mat.

These 3 and Outs are supposed to be fun, shorter pieces, and a discussion of the NFL labor negotiations shouldn't be either of those things. But, before we get into revenue sharing, rookie pay scales, and who stands to lose what, I'll do everyone a favor and give you the 3 things that will be true whenever a new CBA is reached, whether that's tomorrow, in June, or God forbid, a year from now.

1.  There Will Be an 18 Game Season
A poll came out the other day that suggested most fans don't want an 18-game season. I believe it. Most of us know that the beauty of the NFL is how important each game is. Adding to the number of games played diminishes the importance of each one. Furthermore, the NFL season is already a test of who can stay healthiest. Right now, maybe 8 teams stay healthy enough to make a serious run. Adding 2 more games could cut that to 6 most years, or even 3 or 4. How brutal would it be if your team went 15-3 (and that's another thing, we'll have to figure out what the records mean again. I know what a 12-4 team is, not a 12-6 team). That should tell the Commissioner something: even  die-hard fans don't want an 18-game season.

BUT, what the poll doesn't ask is this: "Will you boycott the extra 2 games?" Because the answer to that is obviously not. NO die-hard fan is going to stop watching, or stop buying tickets because the season is 2 games too long. And as long as they get the revenue from an extra home game, the owners and the Commissioner will be able to sleep at night with a slightly watered down product.

2. Roster Size Will Increase
It's about time. Right now, the NFL roster is 53 players, with 45 active on game day. The only injury status there is is season-ending Injured Reserve. That means if you have a guy who's out for 6 weeks, you either lose him for the season, or lose a roster spot for a month and a half while he recovers. With the big push on player safety, and likely an independent doctor deciding whether guys will play after head injuries, the roster size should grow to maybe 58 or 59 guys, with a "Disabled List" kind of thing evolving, where you can put a guy out for say 4, 8 and 12 weeks, without losing him for the season. The owners won't like it, because that's 6 or 7 more guys they have to play, but this isn't a battle they're going to use the heavy guns for.

3. The Players Will Be Right, The Owners Will Win
Keep in mind, the terms "Lockout" and "Strike" are opposites, not synonyms. The players would be more than happy to keep the current CBA in place. The owners want to slash the player's share of the profits by 18%, while increasing the number of games, re-instituting the salary cap, and renogiate rookie pay structure- which is the one point the owners are strongest on.

But the players will  unfairly be saddled with comparisons to the 1994 MLBPA strike, even though the circumstances couldn't be more different. Friends of your Dad will say things like "Bunch spoiled millionaires getting paid to play a game and they complain. Johnny Unitas never went on strike." There will of course be no consideration given to the fact that the NFL owners are all billionaires, who haven taken the fan for PSL's, parking passes, games you can only see if you buy NFL Network, and actually tried to trademark the phrase 'The Big Game."

That's why the owners win. There's usually very little room for nuance in these discussions, even though there should be. The owners, holding all the cards will keep just enough public support that they can wait the players out. Players, knowing the average NFL career is less than 4 years, will win some small concessions, but won't want to miss a whole year. Roger Goodell will grant the players just enough concessions that they can save face, but he will not cave on the key issues. And they'll get most of what they want.


Don't worry, a much more nuanced series of articles dealing with each issue individually, as well as a timeline of events, and how this affects the public will be coming in the next few weeks and months. But although, we don't know when this story will end, we do know how it will end.

The Title Tightrope

Aaron Rodgers celebrates with the 2 richest prizes in all of sports- the Vince Lombardi Trophy and the World's Heavyweight Championship.

(Pretty sweet that someone's bringing back Rasheed Wallace's Championship Belt gimmick from 2005. Hopefully Rodgers wears it all of next year.)



I laid off posting yesterday, since every single written word the Monday after the Super Bowl has to incorporate the game somehow. You needed one more person talking about the Black Eyed Peas, the fans who were denied seats in Cowboys Stadium, and which commercial was the best like I need another highlight of DeSean Jackson's punt return.

But now it's time to talk, Neumann style.

I thought the game itself was good, but still probably the least exciting game we've had in the past 4 years. Colts-Saints was a 14 point game, but the Colts were down 7 and driving until the Pick-6 that ended the game. Steelers-Cards in 2008 was decided on the last drive. And in case my post from Thursday wasn't illustrative enough, I personally am a big fan of the 2007 Giants-Patriots Super Bowl. It really speaks to how spoiled we've been that this game was the least memorable of the last few.

It was a weird game in that Pittsburgh's undoing was turnovers and sloppy penalties- hardly their hallmark, while Green Bay was able to basically ice the game with a clock-consuming field goal drive at the end. This coming from a team with basically no running game, who's normal modus operandi is the quick strike, big play.

Pittsburgh managed to come back from down 21-3 incredibly quick. Couple of touchdowns sandwiching Halftime, and you've got yourself a 21-17 game. Green Bay, to their credit, didn't get conservative, but kept playing their game, trying to put points on the board via the air. I truly believed the Green Bay, down to their 45th Running Back, was at the greatest disadvantage in a game where they were trying to protect a slim lead. But they proved that wrong by not letting the situation alter their gameplan. They kept the ball in Rodgers' hands, told him to go out and win it. Receivers dropping balls? He played over it. The fact that his own defense was losing guys at an alarming pace, including defensive leader Charles Woodson to a broken collarbone? Nothing more than a speed bump. 

Charles Woodson didn't play in the 2nd half, but his teammates delivered him his 1st Title anyway. Woodson, who won the Heisman in 1998, played in Super Bowl 37 with the Raiders, who were smoked by the Tampa Bay Bucs.







This was a Super Bowl without any kind of super transcendent narrative, which most of the time is better. If you want to say this is about Rodgers pulling the Favre monkey off his back, or 2 storied franchises locking horns for the 1st time in a Championship game, then fire away. I love the history of football, but by game time, I was tired of seeing pictures of Vince Lombardi, Chuck Noll and Art Rooney. The real story of this Super Bowl to me was in the journey of the World Champion Packers, and how small the margins of a title really are in the NFL.

Because make no mistake, the Green Bay Packers were the best team in the NFC this season. They were the 6 seed because of 12 players in Injured Reserve, losing Rodgers to a head injury in mid-December, a few insanely tight losses to Chicago and Atlanta, and the NFC West stinking so much that it inflated the records of the NFC South teams they played. Flip the results of 2 games, and Green Bay is the #1 seed in the NFC, where they probably would have been had they stayed healthy.

BUT, they were also lucky to even be in the playoffs. Not only did they need to win their last 2 regular season games to get in, but there were also a ton of games earlier in the year, games that seemingly had nothing to do with them, that could have made them dead on arrival come mid-December, and we'd be talking about how disappointing they were this year. Consider this: 4 teams in the NFC had a 10-6 record this year. 2 of them didn't even make the playoffs. 1 was the World Champion.

Take the Giants epic collapse against the Eagles in Week 15. Had the Giants won that game, they'd have been 10-4, with Philly at 9-5. Even if you grant the Packers hammering New York the next week, odds are Philly would have gone out in their last 2 games against Minnesota and Dallas (both at home). If Philly wins those games, goes 11-5 and is the Wild Card, the Packers, with the same 10-6 record against the same exact teams, would have been going home in January instead of going to Disneyworld in February.

Or take Tampa Bay's overtime loss to Detroit in Week 15 and flip it. Tampa is 11-5, and they're in the playoffs, not Green Bay. Obviously all of this is conjecture because changing one outcome could change the outcome of every other game. But it's a fascinating look at the fragile nature of winning a Championship in the current NFL. A team can go 10-6 one year, get the breaks, make their own luck, and be World Champs. That same team the next year could actually be better, but go 7-9 because they play the wrong teams at the wrong time, lose a Coin Toss or two in overtime, and be considered a huge disappointment.

People would rightfully say Green Bay didn't get all the breaks this year, or even their fair share of them. Any team that loses their best players literally from the first drive of the season all the way through the 3rd Quarter of the Super Bowl is not simply lucky. But the point here is that no one can do it in this day and age by simply dominating. The tiebreakers and scenarios start to take shape the first weekend of the year. Games you never even know affect you end up determining whether you miss the playoffs entirely, or make a run to the Super Bowl. You can never win by being lucky and not good, but every year it becomes more obvious that simply making your own luck isn't enough. You never know which team has the strength of victory tiebreaker over you because Cleveland beat Tennessee on the road.

Happy Super Bowl

Sunday At 1 would like to wish you all a Happy Super Bowl Sunday. America's secular holiday, devoted to football, beer, and fried foods. God Bless America.

We'll have post-game reaction to Super Bowl 45 beginning tomorrow. Enjoy the game.

About The Author

(Note: This is more of a personal essay than a blog entry about the NFL. That said, it's one of the best things I've ever written. Even if you think, "I know where he's going with this," I ask you to read the whole thing. There are a few curse words, so apologies if that offends you. Feedback would be especially appreciated on this piece.) 

It’s a sickness you know.

Spending this much time, energy and identifying myself so much with a group of millionaires I’ve never met who honestly don’t care nearly as much about the outcome of the games as I do. There are times after a tough Giants loss where I am miserable until Thursday of the next week. Some particularly grueling losses you don’t really ever get over. I can rattle the dates of those games off without any effort. January 5, 2003. November 27, 2005. January 11, 2008. December 19, 2010. I’ve always had a thing for dates.

If you broke down being a die-hard sports fan logically, it wouldn’t make any sense. Almost every scenario breaks your heart.  Your team stinks year in and year out-crushing. Your team is solid, but never quite gets over the hump- frustrating. Your team finds ways to lose the big-game-heartwrenching. If you looked at it analytically, you’d be better off watching the theater. A bad show might be disappointing, but you won’t find yourself losing sleep over it.

So, why do it? Why spend money buying jerseys, tickets, NFL Sunday ticket and huge flat screen TVs? Why get worked up, scream and kick walls over a bunch of guys trying to move a ball across a field? There’s not a reason that makes sense. But I can tell you why I do it.

February 3, 2008.

Back to my thing for dates. 3 years ago tonight, I was at the original Mini-Meadowlands, a place where I’d watched my favorite team win and lose games in the company of the same people for the better part of a decade. But this wasn’t Week 6 against Washington, where you go to eat taco salad, watch the scoreboard to see if Philly’s losing, and hang around for the late game when the Jets fans showed up to watch their game. This was the fucking Super Bowl. Against a team that was 18-0 and shooting to be the best of all time.

In a moment of honesty, I’ll tell you what everyone in that room felt deep down, but no one dared mention: none of us thought they would win. Not when they had a 10 minute drive to start the game, not when the Defensive line knocked Brady around like no one had all year, and not when they took a 10-7 lead mid-way through the 4th Quarter.

The Patriots took the ball with about 5 minutes left and for the first time all game, started methodically moving the ball down the field. At this point, I was standing up. The seat that had been “my seat” for 6 years suddenly had no appeal to me. Inside of 4 minutes, the Patriots started killing the clock. I remember saying “These assholes are losing, and they’re still so confident that they’re killing the fucking clock.” With 2:39 left, they scored a Touchdown to go up 14-10. What a cruel joke. Super Bowls only come around maybe every 10 years if you’re lucky. We just played a great game against the best team of all time, played them tough throughout, and we’re still gonna lose. At that exact moment, I was longing for the 4-12 2003 Giants. At least that team had the courtesy to be out of it by Halloween.


I’m always the negative one. Chad’s the one who shouts nonsense on seemingly random plays. Hansen’s the one who makes sarcastic comments and absurdly funny absolute statements like “There’s not a team in the NFL who can stop the Saints punting game.” Nick just drinks. So naturally as the negative one, my first thought was “No way that’s a catch.” The ball bounced off his head for Christ’s sake, it’s gonna be incomplete. After the replay showed that David Tyree did in fact catch the ball with his helmet, the Giants still had to get into the end zone.

“Mom’s Screaming”

In the latter part of the Giants drive, we started to notice a foolproof way of telling how the next play was going to go. Chad’s mother, who was upstairs in the kitchen watching the game on a TV a few seconds ahead of ours, would yell after every good play for the Giants. On the 2 plays after the Tyree catch-nothing. Then a slight noise upstairs on Steve Smith’s 3 and 12 completion. As the Giants lined up for 1^st and 10 with 35 seconds left, Chad’s little brother Al calmly said “Mom’s screaming.” About 2 seconds later we all were as well. The Giants had the lead with just a few seconds remaining. They might actually do it.


In the 2 weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, I spent some time wondering how I’d react if they actually won. I had assumed I’d start to cry, but that didn’t happen. After we all exchanged hugs and watched the beginning of the celebration, a bunch of text messages started pouring in. These were people I knew from college, family members, whoever, congratulating me. Congratulating me. Like I’d done anything. And that’s when I realized that to most people who know me, that’s what I am- the Giants fan. I think most people would rather be “The Really Good Athlete” “The Guy with the Really Hot Girlfriend” or even “The Guy who is good enough at something, anything, that we can identify him with something he does, rather than his favorite football team.” Most of the time, I’ll admit, I’d rather be those guys also.

But not that night. That night, February 3, 2008, 3 years ago tonight, the New York Giants were the best football team in the world. The thing I legitimately cared more about than anyone I knew had rewarded me in the best way possible. I still go back to that night and relive it my head a lot. And that’s not healthy. It’s not anything to be proud of. But it’s who I am. I’m Andrew Neumann, the sickly obsessed, secretly desperate New York Giants fan.

And for one night, it was all worth it. And that’s why I am the way I am.

3 and Out- The Worst Super Bowls

Welcome to the first installment of 3 and Out. These are a series of shorter pieces, which will usually be appearing mid-week, to break up the longer column-type entries we'll be doing. Often times, the 3 and Outs will be very subjective, inviting rebuttals from the unwashed masses.

With this being Super Bowl Week, the first 3 and Out is dedicated to the Worst Super Bowls. Since I haven't been around for all of them, I'll limit it to the ones I've seen. That means everything from the first Bills-Cowboys game in Super Bowl 27 (Sunday At 1 promises to do it's part to limit your Roman numeral overexposure this week) to last year's Saints-Colts game. We really are truly lucky in that Super Bowls these days are generally competitive, compared to the 1980's and early 1990's, when the NFC Champion would simply pound on the Denvers and Buffalos of the world.

My list isn't necessarily the least competitive games, although that is a factor. In addition to closeness, memorability, uniqueness of matchup, and whether there was any incidental boobie also play into my list.

Honorable Mention:
Super Bowl 29: San Francisco 49-San Diego 26.
Game was over literally halfway through the 1st Quarter. Doesn't make the cut because it was exciting to watch the great 49er offense tear San Diego apart and the storyline of Steve Young finally exorcising the Joe Montana demons.

Super Bowl 40: Pittsburgh 21- Seattle 10.
A fairly close game, with almost no sizzle and awful Quarterback play. Will be remembered for a series of close calls, all of them could've gone either way, but all of them ended up going to Pittsburgh.



3. Super Bowl 28: Dallas 30-Buffalo 13
I know you're assuming I meant the other one. True, the year before's 52-17 game between the 2 teams was more one-sided. But by January of 1994, we were looking at Buffalo's 4th straight title game. They were playing the exact same team that had murdered them (and probably a few hookers) the year before. I can't remember one person being excited about Buffalo's chances to win that game. The astute read will say "But Neumann, Buffalo led that game 13-6 at Halftime." But 45 seconds into the 2nd Half,  Leon Lett forced a fumble that Dallas picked up and ran in for a score to tie it at 13. And the route was on. A predictable outcome, with an unlikable, overwhelming favorite hammering an underdog we were frankly all tired of. And it didn't even have the bluster of the year before when the Cowboys won their first title under Jerry Jones and blew the game open from the start.

2. Super Bowl 35: Baltimore 34- Giants 7
People will naturally assume I'm putting this game on my list because I'm a Giants fan and this was an awful game for Giants fans. But really, outside of Ravens fans, this was an awful game for everyone. The Giants, although 12-4 and the NFC's 1 seed, were clearly one of the weaker Super Bowl teams ever. The Ravens, with a dominating defense and steady at best offense, weren't the kind of team that casual fans embraced. Couple that with Ray Lewis off-the-field issues being less than a year prior, and there was not a lot for middle America to latch onto.

The game itself? Kerry Collins threw 4 interceptions. New York's only offense was a Kick Return TD that made the game 17-7. Unfortunately on the next play Baltimore's Jermaine Lewis scored a Kick Return TD of his own to make it 24-7. Baltimore's defense was phenomenal that year, but playing an uncompetitive game against a team that most years wouldn't have come close to making it does not a good Super Bowl make.

1. Super Bowl 33- Denver  34- Atlanta 19
Admit it. You just said to yourself "I completely forgot about that game." You have reason to. After the year before's classic between Denver and Green Bay, no one remembers anything about this game, except that Denver repeated. If I gave you 5 chances, you wouldn't remember who started at QB for the 1998 Falcons. Or who their coach was. There is literally nothing memorable about this game. Denver was ahead 17-6 at halftime and won 34-19. Looking at the box score now, it appears their was an 80 yard TD pass to Rod Smith and a 94 yard Kickoff return by Tim Dwight. Don't remember 'em. I was in 7th grade at the time. Kids would always be talking about whatever sporting event was on, and I remember the next day, no one even wanted to discuss this game. The 13 year old consensus then is just as true now "It was boring." Not a huge blowout that becomes memorable, not a classic that goes down in folklore, just a game that felt like a Week 6 game on the old Sunday Night football back when it was on ESPN and always had crappy games.

Those are my thoughts on the worst games of recent Super Bowl History. What are yours?