3 And Out: The Start of the Labor Nonsense

"We're All Screwed. That's What."

I feel more and more like Tom Smykowski every time I read about the NFL Labor "negotiations." Someone get these guys a Jump to  Conclusion mat.

These 3 and Outs are supposed to be fun, shorter pieces, and a discussion of the NFL labor negotiations shouldn't be either of those things. But, before we get into revenue sharing, rookie pay scales, and who stands to lose what, I'll do everyone a favor and give you the 3 things that will be true whenever a new CBA is reached, whether that's tomorrow, in June, or God forbid, a year from now.

1.  There Will Be an 18 Game Season
A poll came out the other day that suggested most fans don't want an 18-game season. I believe it. Most of us know that the beauty of the NFL is how important each game is. Adding to the number of games played diminishes the importance of each one. Furthermore, the NFL season is already a test of who can stay healthiest. Right now, maybe 8 teams stay healthy enough to make a serious run. Adding 2 more games could cut that to 6 most years, or even 3 or 4. How brutal would it be if your team went 15-3 (and that's another thing, we'll have to figure out what the records mean again. I know what a 12-4 team is, not a 12-6 team). That should tell the Commissioner something: even  die-hard fans don't want an 18-game season.

BUT, what the poll doesn't ask is this: "Will you boycott the extra 2 games?" Because the answer to that is obviously not. NO die-hard fan is going to stop watching, or stop buying tickets because the season is 2 games too long. And as long as they get the revenue from an extra home game, the owners and the Commissioner will be able to sleep at night with a slightly watered down product.

2. Roster Size Will Increase
It's about time. Right now, the NFL roster is 53 players, with 45 active on game day. The only injury status there is is season-ending Injured Reserve. That means if you have a guy who's out for 6 weeks, you either lose him for the season, or lose a roster spot for a month and a half while he recovers. With the big push on player safety, and likely an independent doctor deciding whether guys will play after head injuries, the roster size should grow to maybe 58 or 59 guys, with a "Disabled List" kind of thing evolving, where you can put a guy out for say 4, 8 and 12 weeks, without losing him for the season. The owners won't like it, because that's 6 or 7 more guys they have to play, but this isn't a battle they're going to use the heavy guns for.

3. The Players Will Be Right, The Owners Will Win
Keep in mind, the terms "Lockout" and "Strike" are opposites, not synonyms. The players would be more than happy to keep the current CBA in place. The owners want to slash the player's share of the profits by 18%, while increasing the number of games, re-instituting the salary cap, and renogiate rookie pay structure- which is the one point the owners are strongest on.

But the players will  unfairly be saddled with comparisons to the 1994 MLBPA strike, even though the circumstances couldn't be more different. Friends of your Dad will say things like "Bunch spoiled millionaires getting paid to play a game and they complain. Johnny Unitas never went on strike." There will of course be no consideration given to the fact that the NFL owners are all billionaires, who haven taken the fan for PSL's, parking passes, games you can only see if you buy NFL Network, and actually tried to trademark the phrase 'The Big Game."

That's why the owners win. There's usually very little room for nuance in these discussions, even though there should be. The owners, holding all the cards will keep just enough public support that they can wait the players out. Players, knowing the average NFL career is less than 4 years, will win some small concessions, but won't want to miss a whole year. Roger Goodell will grant the players just enough concessions that they can save face, but he will not cave on the key issues. And they'll get most of what they want.


Don't worry, a much more nuanced series of articles dealing with each issue individually, as well as a timeline of events, and how this affects the public will be coming in the next few weeks and months. But although, we don't know when this story will end, we do know how it will end.