Arbitary Predictions: NFC

NFC East:
Pick: Dallas
Historical Precedent: 2003 Atlanta Falcons.

All you need to know about the precedent: Michael Vick gets hurt. He definitely gets hurt on a team with 2 rookie offensive linemen. Long-term, him on grass, in cold weather is probably not a great prospect. No doubt, the Eagles made nice moves this offseason, but they’re banking a lot on Vick having another year like he had last year. So I’m going with a Dallas team that’s still got some playmakers, and a QB who they know what to expect from. Getting rid of Wade Phillips should be good for 2 or 3 more wins itself.

Order of Finish:
Dallas
Philadelphia
Giants (Sadly almost put them last)
Washington

NFC North:
Pick: Green Bay
Historical Precedent: 1998 Denver Broncos

The Broncos won the Super Bowl in 1997, and then faded into the background most of the offseason. Other teams, specifically Washington, made big moves that offseason, and people were looking for the new upcoming team. Still others went back to picking the San Francisco’s and Dallas’s of the world. But then the 1998 season began and the Broncos were good. Really good. 13-0 good. (Until the Kent Graham led Giants beat them mind you). Well the 2011 Green Bay Packers are going to be good. Really good. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the NFL right now, and the rest of the north leaves you flat. The Lions are getting a bit too much respect, and that ruins any chances of flying under the radar. The Bears rode a favorable schedule to a division title last year and got a bad Seattle team in the playoffs. No such luck this year. I actually like the Vikings to be better though.

Order of Finish:
Green Bay
Minnesota-Wild Card- (Have no basis for this pick. Think the bottom 3 will all be within a game of each other)
Chicago
Detroit


NFC South: New Orleans
Historical Precedent: Every year of the NFC South ever

You’re talking about a division that had like 6 years in a row where the previous year’s division winner swapped places with the last place winner. Most people like Atlanta to repeat in the South, but I think New Orleans has more tools. They are a bit more experienced than Atlanta, but I think this will be a very tight race. The teams play week 16 at the Super Dome and that will probably be for all the marbles. Carolina is in Year 1 of a rebuilding process, and Tampa is due for a big slide after last year’s soft schedule let them get to 10 wins.

Order of Finish:
New Orleans
Atlanta-Wild Card-
Tampa Bay (Back to earth in a big way this year)
Carolina

NFC West: St. Louis
Historical Precedent: The NBA Eastern Conference 2000-2003.

The precedent here is that when you’re in an incredibly weak league, the team who does the least terrible things wins. You don’t have to be phenomenal at any one thing, just don’t be awful at any. The Rams are a solid young team. Not spectacular by any means, but the most dependable. The best QB play, the best defense. Spags is actually the second most tenured coach in the division. 9 wins will probably get you there (only took 7 last year) and I think St. Louis is that team.



Order of Finish:
St. Louis
San Francisco
Seattle
Arizona-(People on the Kolb thing a little prematurely)

NFC Wildcard Picks:
Dallas over Minnesota
Atlanta over St. Louis

NFC Divisional Picks:
Green Bay over Dallas
New Orleans over Atlanta

NFC Title Game:
New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl:
New Orleans over Baltimore.

There you have it. Some incredibly arbitrary, and surely wrong, picks for the 2011 NFL Season.

A note on tonight’s game: Yes, I’m picking New Orleans to win the Super Bowl. I’m not picking them to win tonight. The last Super Bowl winner to lose week 1 the next year was Denver in 1999, and they had lost John Elway in the offseason. It’s only gotten worse since the Super Bowl Champion always opens on Thursday at home now. I remember 3 years ago, watching the Giants and the Redskins. The 2007 Giants were a memorable team, but not a great one. So it wasn’t like I had an overwhelming sense of confidence going into that game. Then Michael Strahan popped out of a Giant (pun fully intended) Vince Lombardi Trophy and introduced “The World Champion New York Giants.” Never any doubt after that moment. They cruised to victory.

Green Bay: 28
New Orleans: 16