I always hate when I read a blog and every post seeminlgy starts with an explanation for why it's taken so long for the uathor to post an entry. I've unfortunately fallen into my own trap the last few months here. I'd planned on writing every single week during the season, at least once but I haven't written anything sicne after Week 2. It's now between Weeks 8 and 9. So no promises from here on out, but I'm going to try and do the best I can. I think a good general rule is for me to write when I think I have something interesting to say, rather than try and write a column for it's own sake every week......
This is the time of year when people start to pretend they've got things figured out. Some teams look really good, others look really awful. That accounts for MAYBE 1/3rd of the league. The other 20 or so teams fall somewhere in between. This week's unimpressive 3-4 team is a 6-4 first place team at Thanksgiving. Someone's 5-2 right now and is going to be 6-6. So it's still a fool's errand to try and predict much of anything. But here's what we do know regarding the early playoff picture:
Who's In:
Green Bay (7-0)
San Francisco (6-1)
The defending champion Packers are the team with the fewest question marks in the NFL. They do play in the toughest division in the NFC, so they only have a 1.5 game lead right now. But come on. At 7-0, the Packers would have to go 2-7 the rest of the way to miss out. But 'em in the bracket.
San Francisco may still yet prove to be a bit overblown, but their record, coupled with the ineptitude of everyone else in the NFC West, makes them an even bigger lock than Green Bay. The 49ers currently enjoy a 4 game lead after 7 games played and will have the division mathematically wrapped up by Thanksgiving night.
Who's Out
(I'm going to be conservative here and only put teams who would basically have to win out from here).
Miami (0-7)
Jacksonville (2-6)
Indianapolis (0-8)
Minnesota (2-6)
Carolina (2-6)
Seattle (2-5)* Only 2-5 team on here, but they're 4 games out already and hideous
Arizona (1-6)
St. Louis (1-6)
By my math, that's 10 teams. The NFC is a bit more controlled. We know 2 teams that will be in. You can knock 5 out. The NFC West will get only 1 team in. The NFC North will get at least 2, and possibly 3. The South and East will both be wild 3 team races. But in the AFC, my GOD. 3 of the 4 divisions have three teams within a game of each other. There's really only a few teams you can comfortably say are out. Teams like New England and Pittsburgh figure to be playoff teams, but have each lost key divisional games already and are far from unbeatable.
As we look towards this week, and the games finally getting good again (seriously, the last 2 weeks have been BRUTAL) we'll start to learn more. Be back Thursday (if I can be believed) with a look at Week 9.
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