Trying to Make Sense of the First 6 Weeks

The Tecmo Rabbitt, for no good reason

We’re 6 weeks into the NFL season, which is generally the point at which we have enough of a sample size to have the tiniest bit of a clue what we’re talking about. Granted, there’s still a lot of football left to be played, and there’s probably a bunch of things I’ll say here that will seem hilariously wrong just a few weeks from now.

3 Things That Have Surprised Me:

11.       The Patriots struggles- Looking at New England’s schedule going in to this year, most saw them as at least a 12 win team. The legitimately played the easiest schedule I can remember a good team playing in a long time. Coupled with the fact that they’ve won 14 and 13 games the last 2 years respectively the last two years, there was little reason to think they’d trip up this much this early. With losses to Seattle, Arizona, and Baltimore (in which they lost close leads each time), you have to wonder if the old formulas are getting stale up in Massachusetts.

22.      The NFC West is damn good, or at least balanced. 2 years ago, every team stunk. Seattle won the division at 7-9. Last year, San Francisco dominated, but the other 3 teams were all mediocre to bad.  But right now, San Francisco is 4-2, having beaten contenders in Green Bay and Detroit, and embarrassed the Jets and Bills. Arizona and Seattle are both exciting young teams, and are also 4-0. Even the Rams, 2 and 14 last year, are 3-3 and becoming a threat every week under new Head Coach Jeff Fisher. In the NFC, 3 different divisions seem solid 1 through 4, which was expected, but the NFC West is one of them, which was not.

33. Rushing a QB taking a knee actually became a controversy. It’s low-rent, classless horse-shit. It’s not old-times football, nor is it something Vince Lombardi would have approved of, as I heard someone mention on the radio a few weeks back. As an offensive lineman, I was always worried about cheap shots, and that a bunch of professionals would be basically forced to do it bothers me just as much as the fact that half of the talking heads on TV sanctioned it.

3 Things That Absolutely Have Not Surprised Me

1.        

   This has been a site Eagles fans have seen 9 times already this year.









The Eagles/ Michael Vick soap opera continues- Right now, the Eagles are 3-3 and could easily be 5-1 or 0-6. Almost every game has been that close. But this was a team with high expectations last year, and was basically given a mandate this year: win big or see changes. Already, Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo has been fired. But the real controversy around the Eagles centers on Michael Vick. In 6 games, he has thrown for 1632 yards already, placing him 9^th in the NFL. However, he has thrown 8 interceptions, which is 6^th in the league, but above him are names like Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. He’s also fumbled 9 times already. Nine! And they’ve lost 5 of them. That’s 14 turnovers in 6 games.

Now, not all of it is his fault, but the Eagles took a big risk hitching themselves to Michael Vick in 2010, after his best year as a Pro. Vick is 32 now, and it’s safe to say he’s as good as    he’s ever going to be, if not already on the down slope. If they decide to rebuild with a new Head Coach next year (which seems like a lock without a deep playoff run), it is likely the new coach will not want to begin a new process with an aging Vick. But as always with the Eagles, they are a few hot weeks away from looking like the best team in the NFL again.

2.       Atlanta/ Houston running away with divisions-  I don’t think I’m the only one who thought of this, especially when it comes to Houston. Even with the Colts being a bit better than expected, the Texans still have a 2.5 games lead already. With the pace they are on, they division will probably be mathematically clinched before the 13^th game of the year is played.

Atlanta might be a bit more surprising to some people, depending on how you thought the Saints situation would play out. I personally thought they would really struggle, although 0 and 4 to start was bit more than that. Atlanta currently has a 3.5 game lead already. If they were to win 4 more and get to 10-0, it’s possible that no one in the division would be above 4-6 and they might clinch the division before Thanksgiving.

3.       Denver not being as great as predicted- As soon as Peyton Manning signed with Denver, people were ready to take a division champion from last year, with a great defense, and put them in the Super Bowl. Only here’s the problem, that division champion last year was an 8-8 team that had some of the craziest luck anyone can remember, and lost their last 3 games, but managed to back into the playoffs because everyone else in their division sucked harder. As for that “great defense:” the Broncos defense was 19^th in yards allowed and 24^th in points allowed. Certainly not groundbreaking numbers. Manning has been up and down so far, and that’s perfectly illustrates by the teams’ 3-3 record. They could still win the division, because the Chiefs, Raiders, and Chargers still stink, but as of right now, they are not a serious Championship contender.

3 Teams Who Have Pleasantly Surprised

Lauren Tannehill. As if I needed a reason to post her picture.

1.Miami- Anyone who saw Hard Knocks, or saw them go 0-4 in the Preseason did not form an optimistic prognosis for the 2012 Dolphins.  But they are currently 3-3, and every game since Week 1 has been either a win or a 3 point loss. Ryan Tannehill is playing way above expectations, and Miami currently sits in a 4 way tie for first (and last) with everyone else in the AFC East.

2.Minnesota- 4-2 currently, already beating their win total from last year. Probably not a team that can sustain the run, but even a 7-9 season or so would be considered way ahead of schedule for a team in Year 2 of a total overhaul. 

3. Washington- Robert Griffin III is way ahead of the field for Rookie of the Year, and their 3 losses all  came by 7 points or less. It looks like they may finally have their franchise QB, which could set them up for years to come. The most likely of this group to stay in it for the whole year, as they still have all 6 divisional games left, and right now feature the NFL’s 2^nd ranked rushing attack.

3 Who Have Disappointed:

1.New Orleans- Look, no one knew exactly what we could expect from them this year. The worst case scenario seemed to be 7-9 or 8-8. But an 0-4 start basically ended their season before it even started. Losing your Head Coach due to suspension is not something anyone has ever had to deal with, but a team with Drew Brees should not open the season with losses to Washington, Carolina, and Kansas City (the first and third being at home).

2. Lions- The classic team that was bad for a long time, got good for a year, and everyone just assumed they would stay good forever. Currently at 2-3 and very much still in it. But they have let a number of games slip away, don’t seem to have the same offensive explosiveness as last year, and it’s seems as if they are embracing the problems from last year a bit too much, with this week’s story about how they plan to return to being the “Bad Boys” this week. So basically that means they think they need to play dirty.

3. Chiefs- A sexy pick as a dark horse divisional champion, currently a 1-5 and blown out 4 separate times. They have the 30^th ranked offense, and the only headlines they made this year revolve around their own fans booing their starting QB being injured.

                                              Game of the Year So Far

6 Games of the Year so far (2-6 in no order):

1.       Titans 44 Lions 41 (OT) 46 points in 4^th quarter. Lions score 14 points in 18 seconds, including Hail Mary as time expires. Game of the Year so far.

2.       Colts 30- Packers 27 The first comeback of the Andrew Luck era, huge upset.

3.       Falcons 30- Panthers 28 Falcons drive 98 yards to stay undefeated

4.       Chiefs 27- Saints 24 (OT) Chiefs score 11 unanswered in 4^th, send Saints to 0-3.

5.       Ravens 31- Patriots 30 AFC Title Game Rematch ends on barely made 30 yard FG, lots of replacement ref fun

6.       Giants 41-Bucs 34 Giants score 25 4^th Quarter points, kneel downs become controversial.

Week 4 Preview:

You can thank me later.

(Editors note: the writer was fairly drunk while penning this article)

After my column earlier this week about the officials, the Referee lockout ended less than 24 hours later. So stay tuned for my next column next week about why more hot girls don’t want to hook up with me. Because apparently my columns are magic.

Seriously though, the NFL lockout ending is huge. Not only will the officiating get better, but there will just be less of an excuse factor going forward. We already have asterisks next to Green Bay and Seattle’s records this year, and if they finish one game out of something, we’ll have the replacement officials in Monday’s game to thank. Another few weeks, and another couple weeks might have had similar stories, and the whole year might have felt like a tainted season (good news for Redskins fans- 2 of their 3 titles came in strike shortened season)

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Anyway, week 4 looks pretty good, except for a certain point I have to raise:  WHY IN GOD’S NAME DO BYE WEEKS START IN WEEK 4?

Think about it. There’s 32 teams in the NFL, playing 16 gam

es over 17 weeks. Yet for some reason, 2 teams have Bye weeks after playing 3 games.  Meaning after their 4 days off this week, they play 13 games in a row, including a Thursday night game? I have always said that the NFL should adopt a 2 week Bye-week formula. 16 tams off in Week 8, 16 off in Week 9. This gives everyone a week off roughly in the middle of the year, but you can still make decent games out of those 2 weeks. Sure, with a Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night game, you’d only have 5 games during the day day both Sundays. But with careful planning, you can make enough of those games marquee, and get the byes done quickly, and fairly.

Back to the actual games: We’re through 3 weeks and 27 of the 32 teams are either 2-1 or 1-2. So it’s clearly too early to judge anything. But that doesn’t stop us, now does it:

Undefeated Team Most Likely to Lose: Arizona. Look, everyone is shocked they are 3-0. And looking at their schedule, they have a real shot to be like 7-0. That’s why you have to be weary. This was not a time most were real high on even a week ago. Sure, Miami stinks, but  e very year a team gets off to a gppd start and people proclaim they are making the leap, only to see them lose 3 out of 4. I like what I’ve seen from the Caridnals so far, but they are a definite candidate for this.

Team Under the Most Pressure:  Has to be New England. A tough loss to Arizona, followed by a controversial loss to the Ravens puts then at 1-2, first time with a losing record since every guy in Boston suddenly became a huge “Pats” fan.  I expect them to roll Buffalo, but a 1-3 start would have to scare even the most die-hard (read: drunk, probably  racist) Boston fan.

Close second: Green Bay: Playing a desperate New Orlenas team, easy to overlook they are 1-2 themselves. Even accepting the outcome of the Monday night game, they still have looked awful a good portion of the first 3 games of the season. San Francisco hammered them at home, and a mediocre Seattle team kept it close enough for incompetent officiating to give them the game. An 0-3 Saints team coming in seems like easy pickings, but if the Saints win, both  teams will be 1-3, facing a 2 game deficit (at least) in their respective divisions.

Game of the Week: Bias aside, has to be Giants-Eagles. Both teams 2-1. Giants cannot afford to go 0-2 in the division: Eagles have looked shaky and QB Michael Vick has looked awful so far. A loss for wither team makes a division title a longshot- even in Week 4. Philly has won 7 of the last 8 vs. the Giants, suggesting they have the edge, but the Giants are the defending World Champions and are 33-17 in their last 50 road games, so this could go either way.

3 and Out:

11)      Every article I read about Ron Gronkowski makes him seem exactly like Jeremy Shockey. Young,  wild guy shaking up a conservative franchise. Drinks a lot, parties hard. We’ll see if the ending is the same, but the beginnings have been almost identical.

22)      The NFL not having Darrel Revis this year sucks. It’s no secret I hate Rex Ryan and his method of coaching a team. I almost always root against him and the Jets. But the fact is, Revis plays Corner better than anyone else in the NFL does anything. The second best CB in the NFL is closer to the 10^th best CB than he is to Revis. That’s how good he is. And like when Brady got hurt in 2008, the league takes a hit for not having him this year.

33)      My fan take: Brian Dawkins being honored by the Eagles at halftime tomorrow night. I’ve read a ton of articles about how much Philly loves him. Of course they do. He was a bullshit, cheapshot artist who never won anything when it comes down to it. He basically ended Ike Hilliard’s career with an absolutely filthy hit in 2002 that earned him a huge fine. Well, he can get his jersey retired tomorrow, with the knowledge that the last 15 years gave been the “golden era” of Eagles football. In which they’ve won 1 NFC Championship and no Super Bowls. Meanwhile, in this Eagles golden age, the Giants have won 3 NFC Championships, and 2 Super Bowls. That will be all.

Officially a Disaster (Pun Fully Intended)

 Full column on the official situation. I'll have a post Friday or Saturday on the actual football in Week 3, which was awesome, and looking forward to Week 4.

I’ll keep it brief about this (Editor's Note: I wasn't) , because everyone, up to and including the President of the United States, has weighed in on the NFL officiating lockout.  And much like last year’s player lockout, I found much of the rhetoric from people who don’t understand the situation to be maddening. Last year it was “This is just a bunch of millionaires against billionaires.” This year doesn’t have quite the same catchy phrase, but the standard throw away joke was that “The Real Refs Weren’t Too Great Either.” And for a while, that’s kind of how I felt. They were bad in preseason, but no one really thought they wouldn’t have a deal done by Week 1. Then the first week came and passed without a huge incident (Seattle got an extra timeout that didn’t impact the game- and it was a weird situation I honestly didn’t know the rule to) and I thought maybe we’d be OK. But the last few weeks, compounded by a hugely egregious mistake last night, have bought us to the point of no return.

 They are making two different calls, but right here it looks they're doing the YMCA.

Look, I’ve said all along I didn’t care about them missing holding or pass interference. That’s judgment call stuff that the regular officials don’t necessarily call consistently all the time. My problem all along has been with the administration of the game. In the first preseason game I watched, the Giants were given an extra play to end the game, when a penalty should have resulted in a 10-second run-off.  It was the first preseason game and they ended up getting sacked anyway, so it didn’t mean anything at the time, but that kind of concerned me from the start. Because that’s not a thing you get better at with practice: that’s a black and white application of the rule.

But nothing happened the first 47 games of the season that directly impacted the outcome of a game in the closing seconds.  That all ended last night. For those of you who didn’t get to see it, here’s the video, starting at about the 25 second mark:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSdKk_YML3k&feature=fvwrel

OK, that wasn’t the actual clip (like anyone hasn’t seen it already yet). But it’s a pretty damn spot on representation of what happened. Hail Mary into the end zone, two guys go up, both come down.* Joint possession is ruled, which goes to the Offense by rule. Touchdown Seattle, game over. If they overturn it, Interception, Green Bay, Game over. This was the nightmare scenario for the refs and the NFL: there was no safe way out. If one of the options would have sent the game to Overtime, or extended the game, you can bet your ass they would have made that ruling upon review. In this case, I think they just went with the home team.

*I don’t even consider the fact that Golden Tate pushed off. Everyone pushes off on those plays. You’re not getting that call there, let’s just leave that part out of it.

 I miss Mike Carey. He always looks like he's doing half of The Rock's People's Elbow signal. Plus he was the ref for Super Bowl 42.

 

For the record, I actually don’t think the call was that horrendously egregious. That’s a killer situation, and one of the vaguest areas of the rulebook concerns joint possession. Because technically Tate did have his hand on the ball the whole way. Does that equal possession? Certainly MD Jennings had “more possession,” but is that even a thing? Obviously, I believe the call should have been overturned on review, but my point is this wasn’t some case of outright corruption, or even the worst call I can remember. That would be this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrhRZ0EcpRs

What it is, however, is the straw that broke the camel’s back. Before you had people sort of working around the edges of this thing. Now, players, coaches, and even broadcasters usually very loyal to the NFL are openly criticizing them DURING games. The tipping point for all sports scandals is when politicians get involved. Today, President Obama, VP Candidate Paul Ryan, the Governor of Wisconsin, and Newt Gingrich all weighed on this, and ham-fistedly tried to work it into their ongoing agendas. The New Jersey State Legislature announced they are considering a bill banning all NFL games in their state with replacement refs, citing sub-standard working conditions. Obviously that’s grandstanding,  likely illegal and would never pass, but I say if it puts the Giants in Yankee Stadium and the Jets somewhere in Southeast Asia, I’d be fine with it for a while.

But people are so off base on assigning blame in this instance, and that’s what frustrates me. It’s not at all these guys trying their best as replacement refs. They’re mostly High School and small-College refs. If this were SEC officials, I doubt the drop-off would be that severe. If we played 3 on 3 basketball, and you told me to stick the 22 year old starting point guard for his college team, you couldn’t get pissed at me when I couldn’t cover him. He’s just too fast. 

People also don’t know what they are talking about when they blame Roger Goddell. The Commissioner of the NFL works for the owners. On financial matters, he does their bidding. They want him to take a hard-line, so he does. I’m not crazy about a lot of his ideas, but in this instance, if the majority of owners wanted a deal done with the officials, it’d be done.  So the owners have to shoulder a bit of blame here. They can easily afford to pay what these guys want, with almost no noticeable impact on their finances.

But I have to be honest, the officials (the real, locked-out ones) deserve a lot of blame here too. The big issue is the pension. The NFL wants to do away with the non-contributory pensions they give the NFL officials, who makes over 100,000 dollars a year as part time employees. A few things, if you make over 100 grand a year at something, that means you don’t need another job, so you’re really not a part time employee. You may not get health benefits, but a job you make a 100,000 dollars a year to work a few days a week, half the year is a GOOD job, not a part-time job. Secondly, who the hell has a non-contributory pension nowadays? It’s not something companies, even those who print money, are going to be able to afford to do much longer. The NFL even said they would honor the existing pensions, and stop offering them to all new officials. That’s a pretty generous bargaining move.

The other, smaller, issues are as follows: The NFL wants to increase the number of crews, so that crews that consistently earn low grades can be “benched” in favor of higher-performers. They want to make some officials full-time, and add the number of officials they employ. This would admittedly divide the wage pool, forcing most officials to make less annually. That’s definitely a legitimate gripe, but what the NFL asking here is far less than what they made the players swallow last year. Not a perfect comparison, but still one worth looking at.

 This is where I watch football every week. Essentially my Crack Den. Also one of the few moments when Mook is not sticking his head in my lap, trying to steal pretzels or pizza crusts.

 

But the final finger gets pointed back to all of us. Because we put up with it. We are all so addicted to the NFL, that we let them get away with basically anything. The PSL is one of the most blatant “fuck you” moves to fans in general that I’ve ever seen. The lockout last year exposed the avarice of the men who run this sport, far surpassing even the owners of other sports. Why do they do it? Because they can. Because unlike every other sport, the NFL becomes incorporated into people’s lifestyles during the 5 months it’s on. It’s perfectly acceptable to watch 9 hours of football every Sunday, but with the exception of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, you can’t do that with any other sport. Between fantasy leagues, picks pools, suicide pools, and the games themselves, most of the guys I know have a large portion of their social lives devoted to football from September to January. And we’re not going to give that up over a labor dispute with the officials. So they’ll settle this, re-establish equilibrium, and then 18 months from now, some other nonsense will pop up (my guess is a serious push towards  an international franchise). We’ll all piss and moan, but like many people in a one-sided relationship, we’ll keep coming back, because we know they love us, they just have a funny way of showing it.

After 2 Weeks: Jacksonville and Cleveland Suck!

We’re 2 weeks into the 2012 NFL season, and 20 teams are 1 and 1. While that’s the highest number ever, it’s not really all that shocking. Basic math would say that 8 teams should be 2-0, another 8 should be 0-2, and the other 16 should be 1-1. So having 6 and 2-0, 6 at 0-2 and 20 at 1-1 isn’t all that much of an anomaly.

That doesn’t mean it’s too early to make some observations. Because while being 0 and 2 isn’t a death knell, 0-3 damn sure is. Assuming 10-6 gets you into the playoffs, and 9-7 doesn’t (this is the case most years) starting 0-3 means you have to win 10 or your final 13 games to get in. That’s a tall order for anyone. The five 0-2 teams in the AFC, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Oakland, each had at least a 50/50 chance of sucking this year. So really the only 0-2 team that’s a shock is New Orleans.

It was always going to be tough to figure out what to make of the Saints this year. No team has ever had their Head Coach suspended for an entire season. Coupled with a few keys players serving suspensions and the circus surrounding the scandal, it seemed likely the Saints would suffer some distractions this year. But with Drew Brees and the core of a team that won 13 games a year ago, I figured they would at least be in the playoff hunt all year. And I think they still will be. But still, seeing a team that is a perennial powerhouse and former World Champion just 3 seasons ago start with 2 losses to mediocre teams certainly is jarring.

On the other side: the 2-0 teams are for the most part not surprising, with the exception of Arizona. San Francisco and Houston look like the best teams in the NFL now, with Houston holding 2 blowouts over poor teams (Miami, Jacksonville) and San Francisco with decisive victories over good ones (Green Bay, Detroit). It means a lot less to be 2-0 than it does 0-2, so we’ll see how things shake out, but the pecking order has clearly been established.
 
Quick Hits on Stories I’m Tired Of:
Replacement Refs:  I’d rather have them conference and get the calls right, then blow the calls. I don’t think they’ve been outrageously bad yet, but I also don’t think the lockout will be over any time soon. I’m frankly saturated with all of it.

The Kneel Down Controversy: My Facebook post from the other night sums it up:
                                                Played football for 11 years, and watch pretty much every NFL game, every week, all year. Rushing the QB on a kneel down is bush league, no class, horseshit. And if you're Greg Schiano, maybe when a guy like Tom Coughlin, who's been in the league almost 30 years, and has 3 Super Bowl Rings, tells you something it bush league, you should listen, instead of sticking your chest out farther.
The problem is people are now overthinking it. I’ve heard almost philosophical conversations about “Why should the offense get to tell the defense the game is over?” and “The game is played for 60 minutes.” Stop it. It’s a bush league play because it is. No amount of discussion will clear that up. It’s akin to when Alex Rodriguez yelled something at an infielder a few years ago who was trying to catch a pop fly. There’s nothing illegal about it, and 12 year olds across the land think its fine. But baseball people, who’ve spent time in the game, all derided it as dirty pool. And it was. Same thing applies here.
But perhaps the most annoying thing about this story is that it became the story of the game. Eli Manning threw for 510 yards (8^th all time) and the Giants scored 25 points in the 4^th Quarter. But somehow Greg Schiano gets all these props for changing the Bucs culture and playing hardnosed defense, after allowing 600 yards of offense (a franchise record against the Bucs) and 41 points.

Looking Forward to Week 3:
 
There are really only 2 games I would consider good games this week. New England at Baltimore on Sunday Night went from being a good game to being a great game after both teams lost last week. Baltimore’s loss to Philly was fine on paper, but the way they blew the game, allowing Philly to turn it over a number of times in the red zone and still win,  turns it into a bad loss. And New England’s suicide pool destroying home loss to Arizona was  just so un-Patriot like it still feels like it didn’t happen. One of these teams is going to be 1-2 after this AFC Championship Game rematch, and right now, I think it’s going to be New England.
 
The other big game this week is Philadelphia at Arizona. Philly has not played very well and has turned the ball over 9 times in back to back 1-point wins, but have won nonetheless. It remains to be seen if this is a situation where once they start playing better they’ll be a juggernaut, or if they’re just a sloppy team that will always play close games. As for Arizona, I was starting to feel like maybe they were getting a little bit of the patented overhyping by the media after a big (albeit lucky) win in Foxboro. I expect them to come down to earth a bit this week against a good Eagles team.
But, take a look at the Cardinals next few games after this: Miami, @St. Louis, Buffalo, @Minnesota. That’s pretty weak. It’s not inconceivable to think Arizona could be something like 6-1 heading into Week 8 vs. the 49ers. After that their schedule gets MUCH tougher, but a great start could mean they only have to finish something like 3-4 to get to 10 wins and a possible Wild Card spot.

Sleeper Game of the Week: Cincinnati @ Washington. Two 1-1 teams capable of looking great and horrendous in consecutive weeks- or consecutive Quarters. Redskins with a few crucial injuries, and a bone-headed mistake in a crushing loss to the Rams has killed a lot of their goodwill from Week 1 win. Bengals destroyed by Ravens in Week 1, beat Browns Week 2. Good barometer this week against an average team after playing both ends of the spectrum thus far.
Suicide Pick of the Week: I’d actually be fairly confident taking New Orleans over  Kansas City at home. Hard to imagine the Saints going to 0-3, and no one has looked worse than the Chiefs yet. A lot of people will take San Fran over Minnesota, but I’d prefer to stay away from road teams early in the year.  Of course, in a real suicide pool, I’d be out already, since I took New England last week.
…But who didn’t?

***A Note About the Blog: Going to try to update at least twice a week, starting next week.  Will do my best. Work has been busy/frustrating lately, and I’ve been sorely lacking energy in the evenings. I haven’t put any pictures in the last few weeks. Let me know if they legitimately add to your enjoyment or not. I don’t mind doing them, but they do take some time to find, lay out, etc. so I will scale them back a lot if no one needs/ enjoys them. Thanks guys!***