That doesn’t mean it’s too early to make some observations. Because while being 0 and 2 isn’t a death knell, 0-3 damn sure is. Assuming 10-6 gets you into the playoffs, and 9-7 doesn’t (this is the case most years) starting 0-3 means you have to win 10 or your final 13 games to get in. That’s a tall order for anyone. The five 0-2 teams in the AFC, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Oakland, each had at least a 50/50 chance of sucking this year. So really the only 0-2 team that’s a shock is New Orleans.
It was always going to be tough to figure out what to make of the Saints this year. No team has ever had their Head Coach suspended for an entire season. Coupled with a few keys players serving suspensions and the circus surrounding the scandal, it seemed likely the Saints would suffer some distractions this year. But with Drew Brees and the core of a team that won 13 games a year ago, I figured they would at least be in the playoff hunt all year. And I think they still will be. But still, seeing a team that is a perennial powerhouse and former World Champion just 3 seasons ago start with 2 losses to mediocre teams certainly is jarring.
On the other side: the 2-0 teams are for the most part not surprising, with the exception of Arizona. San Francisco and Houston look like the best teams in the NFL now, with Houston holding 2 blowouts over poor teams (Miami, Jacksonville) and San Francisco with decisive victories over good ones (Green Bay, Detroit). It means a lot less to be 2-0 than it does 0-2, so we’ll see how things shake out, but the pecking order has clearly been established.
Quick Hits on Stories I’m Tired Of:
Replacement Refs: I’d rather have them conference and get the calls right, then blow the calls. I don’t think they’ve been outrageously bad yet, but I also don’t think the lockout will be over any time soon. I’m frankly saturated with all of it.
The Kneel Down Controversy: My Facebook post from the other night sums it up:
Played football for 11 years, and watch pretty much every NFL game, every week, all year. Rushing the QB on a kneel down is bush league, no class, horseshit. And if you're Greg Schiano, maybe when a guy like Tom Coughlin, who's been in the league almost 30 years, and has 3 Super Bowl Rings, tells you something it bush league, you should listen, instead of sticking your chest out farther.
The problem is people are now overthinking it. I’ve heard almost philosophical conversations about “Why should the offense get to tell the defense the game is over?” and “The game is played for 60 minutes.” Stop it. It’s a bush league play because it is. No amount of discussion will clear that up. It’s akin to when Alex Rodriguez yelled something at an infielder a few years ago who was trying to catch a pop fly. There’s nothing illegal about it, and 12 year olds across the land think its fine. But baseball people, who’ve spent time in the game, all derided it as dirty pool. And it was. Same thing applies here.
But perhaps the most annoying thing about this story is that it became the story of the game. Eli Manning threw for 510 yards (8th all time) and the Giants scored 25 points in the 4th Quarter. But somehow Greg Schiano gets all these props for changing the Bucs culture and playing hardnosed defense, after allowing 600 yards of offense (a franchise record against the Bucs) and 41 points.
Looking Forward to Week 3:
There are really only 2 games I would consider good games this week. New England at Baltimore on Sunday Night went from being a good game to being a great game after both teams lost last week. Baltimore’s loss to Philly was fine on paper, but the way they blew the game, allowing Philly to turn it over a number of times in the red zone and still win, turns it into a bad loss. And New England’s suicide pool destroying home loss to Arizona was just so un-Patriot like it still feels like it didn’t happen. One of these teams is going to be 1-2 after this AFC Championship Game rematch, and right now, I think it’s going to be New England.
The other big game this week is Philadelphia at Arizona. Philly has not played very well and has turned the ball over 9 times in back to back 1-point wins, but have won nonetheless. It remains to be seen if this is a situation where once they start playing better they’ll be a juggernaut, or if they’re just a sloppy team that will always play close games. As for Arizona, I was starting to feel like maybe they were getting a little bit of the patented overhyping by the media after a big (albeit lucky) win in Foxboro. I expect them to come down to earth a bit this week against a good Eagles team.
But, take a look at the Cardinals next few games after this: Miami, @St. Louis, Buffalo, @Minnesota. That’s pretty weak. It’s not inconceivable to think Arizona could be something like 6-1 heading into Week 8 vs. the 49ers. After that their schedule gets MUCH tougher, but a great start could mean they only have to finish something like 3-4 to get to 10 wins and a possible Wild Card spot.
Sleeper Game of the Week: Cincinnati @ Washington. Two 1-1 teams capable of looking great and horrendous in consecutive weeks- or consecutive Quarters. Redskins with a few crucial injuries, and a bone-headed mistake in a crushing loss to the Rams has killed a lot of their goodwill from Week 1 win. Bengals destroyed by Ravens in Week 1, beat Browns Week 2. Good barometer this week against an average team after playing both ends of the spectrum thus far.
Suicide Pick of the Week: I’d actually be fairly confident taking New Orleans over Kansas City at home. Hard to imagine the Saints going to 0-3, and no one has looked worse than the Chiefs yet. A lot of people will take San Fran over Minnesota, but I’d prefer to stay away from road teams early in the year. Of course, in a real suicide pool, I’d be out already, since I took New England last week.
…But who didn’t?
***A Note About the Blog: Going to try to update at least twice a week, starting next week. Will do my best. Work has been busy/frustrating lately, and I’ve been sorely lacking energy in the evenings. I haven’t put any pictures in the last few weeks. Let me know if they legitimately add to your enjoyment or not. I don’t mind doing them, but they do take some time to find, lay out, etc. so I will scale them back a lot if no one needs/ enjoys them. Thanks guys!***
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