What We Know (Next to Nothing)

I always hate when I read a blog and every post seeminlgy starts with an explanation for why it's taken so long for the uathor to post an entry. I've unfortunately fallen into my own trap the last few months here. I'd planned on writing every single week during the season, at least once but I haven't written anything sicne after Week 2. It's now between Weeks 8 and 9. So no promises from here on out, but I'm going to try and do the best I can. I think a good general rule is for me to write when I think I have something interesting to say, rather than try and write a column for it's own sake every week......

This is the time of year when people start to pretend they've got things figured out. Some teams look really good, others look really awful. That accounts for MAYBE 1/3rd of the league. The other 20 or so teams fall somewhere in between. This week's unimpressive 3-4 team is a 6-4 first place team at Thanksgiving. Someone's 5-2 right now and is going to be 6-6. So it's still a fool's errand to try and predict much of anything. But here's what we do know regarding the early playoff picture:

Who's In:
Green Bay (7-0)
San Francisco (6-1)

The defending champion Packers are the team with the fewest question marks in the NFL. They do play in the toughest division in the NFC, so they only have a 1.5 game lead right now. But come on. At 7-0, the Packers would have to go 2-7 the rest of the way to miss out. But 'em in the bracket.

San Francisco may still yet prove to be a bit overblown, but their record, coupled with the ineptitude of everyone else in the NFC West, makes them an even bigger lock than Green Bay. The 49ers currently enjoy a 4 game lead after 7 games played and will have the division mathematically wrapped up by Thanksgiving night.

Who's Out
(I'm going to be conservative here and only put teams who would basically have to win out from here).
Miami (0-7)
Jacksonville (2-6)
Indianapolis (0-8)
Minnesota (2-6)
Carolina (2-6)
Seattle (2-5)* Only 2-5 team on here, but they're 4 games out already and hideous
Arizona (1-6)
St. Louis (1-6)

By my math, that's 10 teams. The NFC is a bit more controlled. We know 2 teams that will be in. You can knock 5 out. The NFC West will get only 1 team in. The NFC North will get at least 2, and possibly 3. The South and East will both be wild 3 team races. But in the AFC, my GOD. 3 of the 4 divisions have three teams within a game of each other. There's really only a few teams you can comfortably say are out. Teams like New England and Pittsburgh figure to be playoff teams, but have each lost key divisional games already and are far from unbeatable.

As we look towards this week, and the games finally getting good again (seriously, the last 2 weeks have been BRUTAL) we'll start to learn more. Be back Thursday (if I can be believed) with a look at Week 9.

Unnatural Rival

Another more personal essay, about rivalries in sports. Or it was supposed to be before I got carried away. The pictures are partisan; everything else is fair. I'll do my Week 3 stuff over the weekend, but I get a better reaction from this kind of entry anyway.

Until 2007, this was the highlight of my Giants fan-dom.

When I was 16, in my Junior year of High School, there was probably nothing I hated more in the world than Arlington High School. I hated their preppy attitude and clothes, hated the attention they got, and hated the way our football team always came up just short against them. I hated that my cousin went there- and he always seemed to be my grandparents’ favorite. I’d get into arguments with people in the mall or at bowling alleys just because I saw them wearing a maroon and gold (and seriously, could there be a more pretentious color scheme?) sweatshirt. So when it came time to get a summer job, I got one in Lagrange, working with 25 kids who all went to Arlington. I spent my whole summer arguing 1 on 25 with people about high school sports, or whatever other insignificant bullshit a 16 year old kid cares about. I don’t know why I felt like I should surround myself with nothing but kids representing something I hated to much, but I just felt comfortable with it being me against everyone else.

Fast forward 16 months.

Now here I am an 18 year old kid. And I’ve once again decided to surround myself with people who love something I hate. I’m in north Philadelphia, at La Salle University, moving into freshman dorms with 800 or so kids from Philly, suburban Philly, and South Jersey. La Salle was not a school with a huge amount of kids from all over the country, it was mostly regional. New York may as well have been Winnipeg to a lot of those kids. I heard some new phrases I wasn’t familiar with (a notebook is a “copy book?”), caught some shit for an accent I never knew I had (there’s a “w” in chocolate somewhere) and tried to figure out why soft pretzels were served cold.

I also saw a lot of green.

This was September, 2004. The Philadelphia Eagles were coming off 3 straight title game appearances and were easily the class of the NFC. They’d just acquired Terrell Owens, who I hated even before he was an Eagle, and seemed destined for a Super Bowl. My Giants on the other hand, were coming off a 4-12 season. They had a new head coach, a rookie quarterback, and seemed destined for 11 or 12 losses again. They unfortunately played the Eagles in Week 1 and got soundly hammered. My roommate first half of freshman year was an Eagles fan, but not the kind I could respect. He didn’t know shit, and was clearly into it because they were good and all his friends were fans (something tells me he’s got a Chase Utley jersey on as we speak). I remember watching him sleep through 3 quarters of a game like 2 weeks later only to see him wake up and start bragging because the Eagles were winning. As that season unfolded it kept getting worse. The Eagles went 13-3 spanked the Giants again, and won the NFC Championship game. You couldn’t go to a party without hearing the E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles! chant and the T-O song 10 times each. When they finally lost the Super Bowl I felt nothing but relief, but I had 3 years of this left to deal with.




Winston Justice only let Osi get 6 sacks in this game



Only it didn’t quite pan out like I was expecting. The Giants got good, and stayed good. They swept the Eagles in 2005, but the Eagles took 2 out of 3 (including a playoff win) in 2006. The Giants won the first game in 2007 to knot the series at 4-4 since I’d been in college. I remember how hard I rooted for the Giants in that last game my senior year. I just wanted to be able to say the Giants had a winning record against the Eagles in my 4 years at school. When Akers missed a potential game-tying Field Goal as time expired, that relief came back again. Despite how rocky it started, the Giants had gone 5-4 while I was living in a sea of green.

But my hatred for the Philadelphia Eagles was not born out of my matriculation (fancy word to describe the beer drinking and Nintendo playing I actually did at college) at La Salle. It started way before that. My father’s family is after all, originally from Philadelphia, and despite living in New York for 40 years, I constantly had to hear all about Philly. My cousins (the same ones who went to Arlington) were raised rooting for Philadelphia teams, and my grandparents never missed a chance to jab at New York- or our teams. My brother and I- the dyed in the wool New Yorkers, rebelled hard against that, and it was the subject of many an argument at family gatherings. When the Giants played the Eagles in Week 17 of 2002, it was during a Christmas gathering. Both teams needed the game, and were split into separate rooms, lest the family be torn asunder. When David Akers missed a 29 yard field goal that would have iced the game, my cry of “He hooked it! He fuckin’ hooked it!”  reverberated throughout the house. When the Giants finally won in overtime, the dejected looks on my family members’ faces were the greatest gift of all.



The only thing out of date about this photo is the QB.

 I tell this long and overly elaborate personal story to reflect on rivalries in modern sports, particularly the NFL. Long gone are the days where players stay on a team for 15 years and legitimate rivalries develop. The Giants and Eagles specifically have had a ton of player movement between teams in the last 20 years. So the players don’t care. It’s really about the fans, and what each fan wants to make of it. In the NFC East specifically, every team is a rival. Each team has their own rivalry with the Cowboys that they think is primary. The Giants and Redskins goes back 90 years. The Eagles and Redskins is probably the weakest, but last year’s McNabb thing proves there can be heat there. But for me, for entirely personal reasons, it’s always been the Eagles. To put it bluntly, I hate the Philadelphia Eagles so fucking much my teeth hurt sometimes. I love watching them lose. I used to go to a bar in Center City to watch the Giants when they weren’t on local TV in Philly. Every now and then I’d time it just right coming home and get on the same train as Eagles fans leaving the stadium. If it was after a loss, seeing them sad made me so happy it’s illogical. Most of them are good people I’m sure and good fans. But you get more from sports in the hating than you do the loving. Think about it, the average die-hard sports fan hates 5 times as much as he loves. There’s legitimately 4 teams in the NFL I hate right now, and 1 that I love. Outside of Giants players, I hate a lot more guys than I like. It’s how you become I die-hard in the first place. And I know it’s completely irrational, but you hate a team so much you love them. As much as I hate the Eagles and their fans, I would never want to see them move or suck for 20 years. Great rivalries develop in the punch/counter-punch. We win 9 in a row; they take 7 out of 8. For every Sehorn interception, there’s a DeSean Jackson punt return.

I’m sure all of you have rivalries like this if you’re as into your teams as I am. I set out trying to write about rivalries in general, and ended up writing a personal essay about the Giants and Eagles. Only natural I guess. Because I relate to it in such personal terms. If the Eagles win Sunday, I’ll be mad. If the Giants pull the upset, I’ll be happy. I still have to get up and go to work in the morning either way, but knowing that someone in Philly will be upset about the outcome would just make me happier. And yes, I know that’s messed up.

Don't Freak Out OK?

The Smart Fan's Week 1 Mantra

You show me a guy who draws sweeping conclusions from Week 1, and I’ll show you a picture of my junk.

………Sorry I should not have let Brett Favre write my intro this week. I do agree with the beginning of his point though. A guy who thinks you learn anything in the NFL after one week either hasn’t been following football for long, or he has- but he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Week 1 is not any more important than Week 6 or Week 12 in terms of playoff seeding, momentum, or anything else. In the first three games of the year, as long as you start at least 1-2, you’re fine. So no one’s back is against the wall yet, and no one is sitting pretty either. But as always, there are a few things worth noting before we look towards Week 2.

Things That Looked Good: Baltimore:
The Ravens demolished Pittsburgh 35-7 at home. Like I said above, one win does not a season make, but the two Steelers games are always Baltimore’s most important games of the year and getting a home win, while catching the Steelers on an off day (they turned it over more times than they did in the whole 1970’s) is definitely a notch in the belt. These two will slug it out all year for the AFC North crown, so getting such a decisive win is certainly a big one, and puts all the pressure on Pittsburgh to win the rematch in Pittsburgh in November.

Green Bay and New Orleans’ Offenses:
What a way to start the season! While the 76 total points prompted the predictable string of hand-wringing columns on Friday about “life in the new NFL,” to anyone without a big stick up the pooper, it was an exciting way to get back into the NFL. Both of those teams will be very good, and I think the defenses just haven’t caught up to the upper echelon QB’s yet due to the lockout. I have a feeling we’ll be seeing these two teams playing each other again sometime in January.

Detroit winning when they are supposed to
Not getting much play this week because they were supposed to win, but are we really taking Lion road wins for granted already? Not a dominating win, but I’m firmly on the “too much respect” bandwagon for Detroit, and expecting them to stumble out of the gate. But the fact that the beat a 10 win team in their building shouldn’t be overlooked.

My scale at 11:45 AM
Got up, went for a run and got on the scale before the early games started. All was looking pretty good. We’ll get back to this later.

Things That Didn’t Look GoodTony Romo’s LeBron James imitation:
Quite the 4th quarter Tony. Fumbling on the 1 yard line when a field goal probably ends the game and then throwing a pick when the Jets were conceding overtime. But since he wears a backwards hat and has a babyface he just keeps getting leeway as a “young Quarterback.” He’s 31. It’s probably time to admit he’s as good as he’s going to be. At times that’s really good; at times he’s the bad parts of Brett Favre. Very capable guy, but veteran QB’s can’t have 4th Quarters like that.

Kansas City:
Jesus. Arrowhead is supposed to be a tough place to play and the Chiefs won the AFC West last year. They let up 41 points to Buffalo. AT HOME? Really just a no account performance all around. They were a long shot to replicate last year’s win total, but come on.

Indianapolis:
This really proves the greatness of Peyton Manning. The Colts were demolished by the Texans. Houston has an explosive offense, but this game was over 6 or 7 minutes in. Indy could possibly be the worst team in the league this year, with a cast that would win 11 or 12 just by putting #18 back in there.

My scale at 11:45 PM
Soda, Beer, 4 slices of meatball pizza, Butter Twist Pretzels, not moving from my chair, and a donut for good measure turned it into quite a day health-wise. Good thing I don’t have one of those blood pressure machines. Football is going to wage war with my scale over the next 5 months. I expect quite the battle.

Other Quick Notes:Chicago- Very impressed with their win over Atlanta. Still not sure what to make of them, but convincing win over what is expected to be a good team.

Cam Newton- What can you say? Great performance, but they did lose. If I was Cardinals fan, I’d have been a bit pissed that our win was barely mentioned in the wrap-ups all week. I’d also be pissed about being a Cardinals fan, but I digress.

The Other “Elites” Hold Serve- New England, Green Bay, San Diego, the Jets, and Philadelphia all win. None looked phenomenal- New England and Green Bay need to play defense, San Diego squeezed one out, the Jets needed a furious comeback, and Philadelphia overcame an uneven second half- but they all won. And you can’t be better right now than 1-0.

Look Ahead to Week 2 (full preview Friday):Some 0-1 teams “needing a win”- Atlanta (v.Phi), New Orleans (v. Chi), Giants (V. StL) (Pittsburgh v. Sea) Dallas (@SF)

Best Games: San Diego v. New England, Philadelphia v. Atlanta

My early suicide favorites:
(Teams gone: New England)
Pittsburgh (v. Sea)
Green Bay (@Carolina)
Dallas (@SF)

Arbitary Predictions: NFC

NFC East:
Pick: Dallas
Historical Precedent: 2003 Atlanta Falcons.

All you need to know about the precedent: Michael Vick gets hurt. He definitely gets hurt on a team with 2 rookie offensive linemen. Long-term, him on grass, in cold weather is probably not a great prospect. No doubt, the Eagles made nice moves this offseason, but they’re banking a lot on Vick having another year like he had last year. So I’m going with a Dallas team that’s still got some playmakers, and a QB who they know what to expect from. Getting rid of Wade Phillips should be good for 2 or 3 more wins itself.

Order of Finish:
Dallas
Philadelphia
Giants (Sadly almost put them last)
Washington

NFC North:
Pick: Green Bay
Historical Precedent: 1998 Denver Broncos

The Broncos won the Super Bowl in 1997, and then faded into the background most of the offseason. Other teams, specifically Washington, made big moves that offseason, and people were looking for the new upcoming team. Still others went back to picking the San Francisco’s and Dallas’s of the world. But then the 1998 season began and the Broncos were good. Really good. 13-0 good. (Until the Kent Graham led Giants beat them mind you). Well the 2011 Green Bay Packers are going to be good. Really good. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the NFL right now, and the rest of the north leaves you flat. The Lions are getting a bit too much respect, and that ruins any chances of flying under the radar. The Bears rode a favorable schedule to a division title last year and got a bad Seattle team in the playoffs. No such luck this year. I actually like the Vikings to be better though.

Order of Finish:
Green Bay
Minnesota-Wild Card- (Have no basis for this pick. Think the bottom 3 will all be within a game of each other)
Chicago
Detroit


NFC South: New Orleans
Historical Precedent: Every year of the NFC South ever

You’re talking about a division that had like 6 years in a row where the previous year’s division winner swapped places with the last place winner. Most people like Atlanta to repeat in the South, but I think New Orleans has more tools. They are a bit more experienced than Atlanta, but I think this will be a very tight race. The teams play week 16 at the Super Dome and that will probably be for all the marbles. Carolina is in Year 1 of a rebuilding process, and Tampa is due for a big slide after last year’s soft schedule let them get to 10 wins.

Order of Finish:
New Orleans
Atlanta-Wild Card-
Tampa Bay (Back to earth in a big way this year)
Carolina

NFC West: St. Louis
Historical Precedent: The NBA Eastern Conference 2000-2003.

The precedent here is that when you’re in an incredibly weak league, the team who does the least terrible things wins. You don’t have to be phenomenal at any one thing, just don’t be awful at any. The Rams are a solid young team. Not spectacular by any means, but the most dependable. The best QB play, the best defense. Spags is actually the second most tenured coach in the division. 9 wins will probably get you there (only took 7 last year) and I think St. Louis is that team.



Order of Finish:
St. Louis
San Francisco
Seattle
Arizona-(People on the Kolb thing a little prematurely)

NFC Wildcard Picks:
Dallas over Minnesota
Atlanta over St. Louis

NFC Divisional Picks:
Green Bay over Dallas
New Orleans over Atlanta

NFC Title Game:
New Orleans over Green Bay

Super Bowl:
New Orleans over Baltimore.

There you have it. Some incredibly arbitrary, and surely wrong, picks for the 2011 NFL Season.

A note on tonight’s game: Yes, I’m picking New Orleans to win the Super Bowl. I’m not picking them to win tonight. The last Super Bowl winner to lose week 1 the next year was Denver in 1999, and they had lost John Elway in the offseason. It’s only gotten worse since the Super Bowl Champion always opens on Thursday at home now. I remember 3 years ago, watching the Giants and the Redskins. The 2007 Giants were a memorable team, but not a great one. So it wasn’t like I had an overwhelming sense of confidence going into that game. Then Michael Strahan popped out of a Giant (pun fully intended) Vince Lombardi Trophy and introduced “The World Champion New York Giants.” Never any doubt after that moment. They cruised to victory.

Green Bay: 28
New Orleans: 16

Arbitrary Predictions: AFC

This is Obligatory And Pointless. Then again, so is my job.

Before and season starts, you have to make predictions. Most improved team. Biggest disappointment. AFC Finalist. MVP of the Pro Bowl. Now no one ever goes back and checks whether you knew your head from your ass 5 months later, but still, you gotta do it. Of course, I don’t know enough about 32 teams’ offseasons to make informed picks, so I basically pull things out of the air and then find reasons for them. But it’s fun, so let’s go. Tonight: the AFC. Tomorrow: The NFC.

 I’ll be back Friday or Saturday with my Week 1 preview and picks, etc. But for tonight, in advance of the Thursday Night kickoff, here are some thoughts I’m having this year in each division, as well as a projected order of finish.

I’m also listening to these two songs on a rotating basis as I write this, so if this is alternately mellow and then psychotic, well you’ll understand.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wpPk8qk3uQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrr2F3seAGU

AFC East:

Pick: New England

Historical Precedent: Atlanta Braves 1995-2005

I was all set to give the Braves precedent to Indianapolis until the severity of Manning’s injury was realized. The Braves, from the second they were placed into the NL East, dominated every year, and always won the division. About 2000 or so, it became chic to pick a new team every year. The thinking was this: if you nail it the right year, you look brilliant. Well, my theory is this: I’ll pick New England to win the division every year, and I’ll be right every year except one. Everyone else can pick new teams year and they’ll only be right once. The Jets are good, and knocked the Pats out of the playoffs last year. But just for the regular season, New England has to be penciled in for 12 wins, and I think the Jets come up just shy of that.

Order of Finish:

New England

Jets-Wildcard- (They're gonna keep having to win road playoff games until they can post a better record than the Patriots)

Miami

Buffalo

AFC North:

Pick: Baltimore

Historical Precedent:  2006 and 2009 Steelers

Another incredibly tough division to call. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both very good, and at each other’s heels. What does surprise me is that Baltimore has only actually won the division twice in the last 10 years- actually only twice ever. That said, Pittsburgh hasn’t had strong seasons after their Super Bowl wins in 2005 and 2008, so coming off a loss in the big one in 2010, they could be primed for another let down.

Order of Finish:

Baltimore

Pittsburgh -Wild Card

Cleveland

Cincinatti (may win 0 football games).

AFC South :

Pick: Tennessee

Historical Precedent: The 1996-1997 San Antonio Spurs

Tennessee is the pick here for the simple fact that I don’t trust Houston. They’re now the golden boys and every time they are the trendy pick, they fall flat on their face. I still don’t believe they can play defense. Tennessee may be the team that makes the fewest mistakes and becomes the surprising division champion there’s always at least one of every year.

The historical precedent is about the Colts. The Spurs were a perennial powerhouse in the ‘90’s. David Robinson got hurt early in the 1996 season, the Spurs went 20-62, won the lottery and got Tim Duncan. They won 4 titles in 10 years after that. Seeing the parallel here? Could this be a “luck-y” year for Peyton Manning to be hurt?

Order of Finish:

Tennessee

Houston

Indianapolis (this assumes Manning misses from 6-16 games) 

Jacksonville

AFC West:

San Diego

Historical Precedent: 2006 and 2009 Chargers

The last two times the Chargers underwhelmed, they won 13 and 14 games the next year, respectively. The Chiefs were a nice story last year, but there’s little reason to believe San Diego is not the team to beat in the AFC West this season. I like the Raiders to be a bit better, but not quite ready to make the leap yet. They’ll probably be better than whoever grabs the South though.

Order of Finish:

San Diego

Oakland

Denver

Kansas City (someone always goes first to worst)

AFC Wild Card::

Pittsburgh over Tennessee

Baltimore over Jets

AFC Divisional Playoffs:

Baltimore over San Diego

New England over Pittsburgh

AFC Championship Game:

Baltimore ovr New England

Power Ranking the Last 10 Years: The Contenders

Back for the next installment of my power rankings for all 32 NFL teams, taking the last 10 seasons (2001-2010) into account. As a reminder, we’re going by how much you would have liked to be a fan the last 10 years, Assuming you’re a rational fan and championships matter most, we tackled the first 7 teams in the first entry (it’s the next entry down on here. Read that one first dammit). All of those teams won Championships this decade. Here’s how that list broke down.

The Multiple Championship Group:

1. New England

2. Pittsburgh

The One Championship Group

3. Indianapolis

4. Green Bay

5. New York Giants

6. New Orleans

7. Tampa Bay

Now that the title teams are out of the way, it’s time to look at the next rung down. There will be teams that enjoyed stretches of ultra-competitiveness, but couldn’t quite get all the way. Again, I’m looking at playoff appearances, division titles, consistency year to year, and overall fan enjoyment of the product. In other words if Team A and Team B are close statistically, I’ll say “Would I have rather been a fan of Team A the last 10 years, or Team B”. And that’s how the final rankings shake out.

Let’s get it on.

 Perennial Powerhouses, No Ring

8. Philadelphia- Easily the best 10 year stretch in Eagles history, in everything but the trophy case. 8 playoff appearances in the decade. An astounding 5 conference championship games, and an NFC Championship in 2004. Have won the division 6 times in the decade, and finished below .500 only once. Easily the best team in the NFC over the course of the decade, up until the last weekend in January. Have done everything this past decade except have a parade.

9. Baltimore- Their 2000 Championship just misses the cut for this time frame. Still, have 6 playoff appearances, and went to the AFC Championship game in 2008. Outside of 5-11 and 6-10 seasons in 2005 and 2007, have been competitive every year. They get the nod over the next team because of the sense that they over-achieve, and most of their most memorable moments the last 10 years are positive. ON THE OTHER HAND….

10. San Diego- I had them at number 9, ahead of Baltimore. But upon closer inspection, they get bumped down here. They were dreadful at the beginning of the decade, posting only 17 wins from 2001-2003. Made the playoffs five of 6 years after that, winning the division each time. But they go below Baltimore for a habit of choking and heartbreaking losses. Outside of an AFC title game appearance against the 16-0 Patriots in 2007, every other year has brought stinging disappointment. They were beaten at home in the playoffs by the Jets in 2004 and 2009. They lost to Pittsburgh in 2008. But the topper is 2006. They were 14-2 and the top seed in the AFC. Lost to a very beatable New England team at home in the divisional round, with the game all but won. That’s the defining moment for the Chargers this decade, and why they are last in this category.

A Few Years as Contender

(As we get into this category, the accomplishments drop off pretty sharply).

11. Seattle- 6 playoff appearances, 5 division titles. NFC champs in 2005. Got to at least the division round four times. Have been awful from 2008 on, but managed to win the division- and a playoff game- in 2010, despite a 7-9 record. Made the playoffs 5 times in a row from 2003-2007, equaling the franchise’s total playoff appearances prior. Opened a new stadium that it the loudest, and toughest place to play in football. Do have their share of heartbreak, in 2 overtime losses in the playoffs, coupled with a Super Bowl in which they were the victim of some close calls. Just miss the last category for getting into the playoffs with 9 wins twice and 7 wins once.

12. Chicago- 4 playoff appearances. Amazingly, earned a BYE each time they made the playoffs. NFC Champion in 2006. Made the NFC title game in 2010. Have had 2 large gaps of mediocrity, but the Super Bowl appearance and 4 times getting a bye is enough to earn them a top spot on the list. Not an incredibly distinguished decade by any means, but the NC Championship year was incredibly exciting and that’s enough for the 12.

13. New York Jets- 6 playoff appearances, including 2 straight AFC title games. Have won 6 playoff games this decade, 5 of them on the road. Do have a few 4-12 seasons on the ledger, but have only missed the playoffs in consecutive years once. Being the Jets, they do have some heartbreakers, the 2004 overtime loss to the Steelers, and the 2008 meltdown namely. But the sheer number of appearances and exciting runs if enough to make them one of the highest teams on this list to not have played in a Super Bowl (and still ahead of a number of Super Bowl  losing teams).

14. Carolina- This high based only on 2 seasons. Only 3 playoff appearances, but 1 was a Super Bowl year (a game they almost won) and another was a conference championship appearance. But they also started the decade with 15 loss season and ended it with a 14 loss year. Outside of those comically bad years though, they never finished worse than 7-9 and won 11 or more 3 times. The only Super Bowl team left who had at least 1 other good year is enough to place them here. Their good years were also spread out (2003, 2005, 2008) so that they didn’t have a prolonged period of awfulitude.

15. Atlanta- 4 playoff appearances, including an NFC title game appearance in 2004 (admittedly in the weakest NFC ever). They watched the whole Vick parabola unfold, which means they got some great years (including becoming the first team ever to beat the Packers in a playoff game at Lambeau Field) and some awful ones after his fall from grace. But they rebounded nicely with 2 playoffs in 3 years under Matt Ryan. A stretch for this high on the list, which will hopefully make sense with the next category.

Right now, you’re probably thinking “There’s some teams he hasn’t mentioned yet that had much better decades than Atlanta or Carolina.” And looking at the stats, that might be right. But at the middle of the list, something started popping up over and over again to me, missed opportunities. The next category will be teams that had 1 specific year where they had a real chance to grab a ring, and choked it away. For most of these teams, it was their only real contender in the decade. So even though one of them may have 4 playoff appearances to Carolina’s 3, the fact that they underachieved in their year to do it all necessarily knocks them lower on my list.

I’ll reveal that portion of the rankings next time. Again, this is all very subjective, and I think I hate my list already. So feel free to jump in and comment on what you think I got wrong. Chances are I’ll agree with you.

Power Ranking the Last 10 Years: The First 7.

Well, it’s been quite a week hasn’t it? Football is back in a big way. From a about 10 days ago, when we were staring into the labor abyss and wondering if there would in fact be any season beyond lawyers, meetings, and press conferences, we’ve seen free agency go nuts, camps open, and we’re less than 2 weeks from preseason games (there would’ve been one next Sunday had they not cancelled the Hall of Fame Game.

I was planning on writing about everything that’s been going on, but decided against it. First of all, I won’t be reporting anything new. Secondly, it’s still impossible to tell how any of these moves will shake out long term. The team that wins the Super Bowl in July very rarely wins it in February.

I got to thinking earlier today about which teams have had the worst last decade in the NFL. I was planning on writing a thing on the 5 teams with the worst last 10 seasons (from 2001-2010). But it occurs to me that list would be fairly obvious: Buffalo, Cleveland, Houston, and Detroit have made the playoffs a grand total of once (Cleveland in 2002). There really wouldn’t be anything fascinating in my putting those 4 and then say Cincinnati or Washington on the list.

So I’ve decided to go with all 32 teams in order. Of course this will be arbitrary. But I’m going to try and put myself in the shoes of a fan of each team and decide how I’d feel about the past decade. This would mean that the top of the list will be heavily weighted with Championship teams. After that though, it get a bit murky. Have the Cardinals, who’ve been bad most of the decade but have a Super Bowl appearance, really had a better decade than the Chargers? I don’t think so.

The things I’ll be counting are Championships, Playoff appearances, performance against rivals, heartbreaking losses, missed opportunities to win big, and other less identifiable things. I started by grouping the teams, and then ranking within those groups. My explanations appear after each entry. This was incredibly difficult and if I did it again, I’d probably come up with a different list. As a final note, I’m trying to weigh the last 10 years evenly, so if a team was good in the early part of the decade but stinks now, I won’t weight the last half more than the first half. I’m also giving no weight to the future (for example, many people think the Lions future is bright; that won’t factor in here.

Once again, the years in play here are 2001-2010. Tonight we'll tackle the top 2 categories: teams that have won a Super Bowl in the Decade.

The Multiple Championships Group:

1. New England – They objectively have to be number one. 3 titles, 4 Conference Championship games. Had a 16-0 season and have only missed the playoffs twice in this era; and one of those was year Tom Brady got hurt and still went 11-5. Have not had a losing record in the decade

2. Pittsburgh- Two Super Bowl titles with a third appearance. Have made the playoffs 7 times in the decade and have remarkably won at least 1 playoff game in 6 of those years. One of the few teams to ever win Super Bowls with different coaches. Below New England by ring count, but a dominating decade nonetheless.

The One Championship Group:

3. Indianapolis: A Super Bowl win and another appearance. The best regular season team in this past decade. Missed the playoffs in 2001 (the first year counting towards this list) and have made 9 straight postseason appearances since then, winning 7 division titles in the process. Have actually had their fair share of heartbreaking losses to end seasons, but 2006 title and regular season dominance place them at the top of this category.

4. Green Bay: Super Bowl win in 2010. 7 total playoff appearances. Managed to switch from a legendary QB to a guy who is now arguably the best player in the NFL. Have actually endured a few double-digit loss seasons in this decade as well, but a title, an NFC title game appearance in 2007, and so many winning seasons puts them comfortably in 4^th- they’re not close to the Colts, but well ahead of the next few as well.

5. New York Giants: Super Bowl win in 2007. 5 total playoff appearances in the decade. Only finished below .500 three times in the time frame. Have had a series of second half collapses, but made the playoffs 4 years in a row, winning 2 division titles in the process. Very close with the Saints on this ranking.

6. New Orleans: Super Bowl champions in 2009. The Giants narrowly edge them out because the Saints only have 3 total playoff appearances in the decade. They’ve been remarkably balanced, only losing more than 9 games in the post-Katrina season of 2005. If we’re weighing the early part of the decade though, the Jim Haslett/ Aaron Brooks teams are a huge strike against. Also made an NFC title game in the miracle season of 2006, but amount of mediocre seasons places them just below the Giants.

7. Tampa Bay: Super Bowl Champions in 2002. 4 total playoff appearances. Actually a distant 7^th on this list despite more playoff appearances than New Orleans. 2002 is the only year in this decade in which they’ve won a playoff games. Also managed only a 79-81 record for the decade. Some teams lower on this list would undoubtedly love the decade the Bucs had, but they are last among equals in this group.

THAT'LL DO IT FOR TONIGHT. THE NEXT 2 CATEGORIES WILL BE REVEALED NEXT.

Roger and De

Mommy and Daddy: Please stop fighting.





As promised, I'm back.

What a roller-coaster few days it's been as the NFL lockout inched dangerously close to August 1st, and things starting to get missed. The 2011 NFL lockout has been looming over football fans since the beginning of the 2010 season. All last year it was “This could be the last Super Bowl for a few years” “With the impending labor situation…..” and my personal favorite thing to tag at the end of any football sentence “…if there is football* next year.”

All along, I’ve been fairly unwavering in my prediction. I said that yes, there would be a lockout, and it would last awhile. But I always thought it would be settled at the last possible moment before games started getting cancelled. Now that we were at that time, last week seemed like the week it finally came to an end. The players would vote Wednesday, the owners Thursday, and the warm glow of football would be washing over us by next week. But then the players didn’t vote Wednesday. Or Thursday. After the owners ratified, the players screamed Shenanigans and said the owners were trying to screw them. But by Thursday night, we were told all had calmed down and they would vote Friday. Then they didn’t vote Friday and we were told they weren’t going to work over the weekend. Oh and by the way, no vote Monday either. Or Tuesday. Suddenly the players, the sympathetic ones in this whole thing, were acting like entitled pricks. They were the only guy in the frat house sober enough to drive. “Dude, we’ll go when I’m ready to go. Shut up.” After months of being confident, yesterday I switched my demeanor to “this isn’t getting done until at least September.”

Are you tired of seeing images like this yet? AP thinks they're clever every time.










But today, there’s been progress. The most unlikely scenario came true. Roger Goddell and DeMaurice Smith, who’ve basically spent the last 6 months calling each other Hitler-in-a-suit got together and hashed it out. The players committee votes to recommend passage Monday. The doors open Wednesday and by Friday, the whole union recertifies and ratifies.

The lockout is over.

We all should be pretty pissed. This thing could have been done in April. I’m sure if you took what both of their positions were at the start of this thing and met each one halfway, it would look remarkably similar to what the final CBA will end up looking like. Roger Goddell let Jerry Richardson, a guy who has owned a team for 15 years (an infancy in the NFL, where families like the Halas’s, Mara’s, and Brown’s have owned teams anywhere from 50-80 years) dictate a hard-line approach that forced the players to dig in. DeMaurice Smith played the part of hotshot new union head who wanted to stand up to the man and in the process make a name for himself outside of football (rumor has it Smith has his eyes on political office eventually). They played this incredibly ballsy game of chicken and were within days of killing the golden goose.

But when I finally saw from credible sources that this thing was done- not close, or progressing well, but done, all I felt was relief. I am just so glad there’s going to be football this year that I’m not even mad about the lockout. I’m like a wife who’s finally fed up with her husband, but when he comes back with a dozen roses, all is instantly forgiven. But it’s not just because football is my favorite sport, and the Giants are my favorite team. It’s that unlike any other sport or team, my life is tangibly better during football season. I spend all week looking forward to the games, making picks, participating in fantasy football, and talking about what to expect the next week. In New York, “Football Friday’s” on WFAN are basically 8 hours of getting you excited for Sunday’s action. From February through August, Sundays are just the day before Monday. It’s a day to run errands, do laundry, and wind down from the weekend. During football season, Sunday is actually part of the weekend. Often times the best part. The first 2 Sundays of March Madness are good, and if you’re a wrestling fan like me, Wrestlemania Sunday is as well. But other than that, nothing comes close to those 16 holidays in the fall and winter. On Sundays during football season, I get up early because I’m excited. I get to spend all day with my friends, eating and drinking either huge amounts of soda or huge amounts of beer, depending on the outcome. I come home, watch the NFL wrap-up shows (unless the Giants blow a 3 touchdown lead in the 4^th Quarter) and listen to the radio all day Monday. Then there’s a game on Monday night. And then it starts all over again.

I haven't had a Coke in 4 months. When the season finally comes I'm going to hammer like twice my usual output. And my usual amount is like twice what a normal human should drink.






In a lot of ways, this lockout has made me appreciate football more, as strange as that seems. My sports year has a pretty regular flow to it. February is slow, punctuated only by La Salle A-10 games and Knicks games- which are almost always maddeningly at the same time. Then in March is my annual trip to AC for the Atlantic 10 tournament. Right after that it’s 3 weeks of March Madness. The first week of April is Opening Day of the baseball season and Wrestlemania. After that it’s the basketball playoffs right up through June. During all of this, baseball ebbs and flows. I might watch every pitch of every inning for a week straight, and then barely catch any of the next 3 or 4 games. Once it’s just baseball in mid-June, we’re in a bit of a dead-zone.

By about August 1^st, I start feeling the itch. The heat starts getting annoying, baseball hits the dog days, and I start looking forward to the first Sunday after Labor Day. As we’ve been getting closer to August, and the lockout was still in place, the concern of my usual routine being interrupted started upsetting me. I wanted to believe all of the good news, because I was simply too scared of what the bad news might mean for me.

But now that we look pretty good for this thing to end, with only the Hall of Fame game being sacrificed, I’m too relieved to be pissed. NFL football is simply different then every other sport because every game is an occasion, every week a holiday. So now that the prospect of missing it was becoming very real, I’m going to be that much more grateful when it’s back.

Sunday at 1 on September 11^th can’t come soon enough.

*For the purposes of this article (and really this site) football means NFL football. If you think it means soccer or college football, I’d like to invite you to go back to Europe or Mississippi, respectively.

Nothing to See Here

You'll notice there hasn't been anything written in a while. For good reason. There's really nothing interesting going on in football land, depsite it being Draft time. I'm not an expert, and let's face it, you need to read another Mock Draft like I need another gray shirt. So for now, enjoy baseball, the NHL and NBA playoffs, and whatever else people who aren't addicted to sports do to pass the time. Once it gets closer to summer (and hopefully the lockout ends) we'll be back in full force.

My Sports Bucket List

(Once again, a bit of a departure from a strict football article, but it’s fairly apparent this site is now my ship to sail, so during the offseason I’ll take it in a few directions).

On Saturday morning, I fly to Atlanta for Wrestlemania 27 (I’m continuing my anti-roman numeral stance from the Super Bowl). I made a comment a few weeks ago about crossing another thing of my bucket list. And I was serious. For every great moment I can rattle off about the Yankees, Giants, and Knicks, I can name just as many about wrestling, and Wrestlemania in particular.

I remember being in the basement of my old house on

Angie Drive

when Hulk Hogan beat Yokozuna to win the WWF Title at Wrestlemania 9, in a match he wasn’t even in. I remember having a big party at my house for Wrestlemania 17, and the two camps my friends and I divided into- the Stone Cold camp and the Rock camp. And the trash-talking leading up to that was every bit as intense as any Giants-Jets or Mets-Yankees argument we’ve ever gotten into. I remember watching Wrestlemania 24 at

5747 Woodstock Street

at college, and watching Ric Flair’s last match. And I remember the last two years at my place in Virginia, watching Shawn Michaels and the Undertaker having one of the greatest matches of all time at Wrestlemania 25, and realizing that despite how wasted I was, I would remember that match forever.

So when I said “cross another one off my bucket list” I was serious. But then today I got to thinking more about it. And I started formulating my sports bucket list in my mind. Some of these things I’ve done, most I haven’t yet. Some of these things involve playing sports, others involve watching them. Some of them I’ll comment on, some of them speak for themselves, but here’s my Sports Bucket List

First, things that I’ve already scratched off that list. Obvious things I’ve already done like “See the Knicks play at MSG” aren’t included.

·        Attend a Giants victory parade down the Canyon of Heroes: Done on 2/5/08. Took an early morning bus from school in Philly. I still have a piece of streamer that one of the D-Lineman threw off their float and I caught.

·        Attend a Yankees victory parade down the Canyon of Heroes: Done on 11/6/09. Extra special because my father met me down there and we got to experience it together.

·        Score a touchdown in an organized football game

·        Hit 4 straight home runs in Pool Baseball.

·        Win a Pool Baseball MVP

·        Attend a Yankees old-timers day

·        Rush a court: La Salle-St. Joe’s 2/18/2008

·        Beat Ketcham in varsity football

·        Have fans chant my name: That same Ketcham game Senior year. I hopped up on a bench and waved my towel at the crowd.

·        Hit a game-winning 3-pointer in any kind of basketball game.

·        Watch the Giants win a Super Bowl at the Mini-Meadowlands.

·        Get thrown out of a game I’m in the stands for.

·        Go onto the field at Giants Stadium.

·        Have a player on the court scream at me in the stands.

·        Get a jersey retired. Van Wyck football. Probably only lasted like a year, but it was hanging in the weight room, which was awesome.

·        See a game at the Palestra with my father.

·        Attend Wrestlemania (after Sunday)

·        Attend the WWE Hall of Ceremony (after Saturday)

It’s harder to come up with one’s I’ve already done, because until now I’ve never had this list. Those were just some of the awesome memories I have from watching sports, playing organized sports, and screwing around with my friends.  Now, onto the one’s still on my list:

• Attend a Knicks victory parade down the Canyon of Heroes: Obviously the one hold out. Bonus would be the weather in June wouldn’t suck, unlike the other 2 sports.
• See a boxing title fight in Vegas with Michael Buffer as the ring announcer.
• See a boxing match at Madison Square Garden.
• See a football game at Yankee Stadium.
• Throw a perfect game in Pool Baseball. Almost impossible, but it’s my Bucket List.
• Go to the Royal Rumble.
• Play 4 different mini-golf courses in the same day and call it the Mini-Masters.
• Actually win an NCAA bracket pool.
• See a playoff football game go into Double Overtime.
• See a bench-clearing brawl in baseball.
• See Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter inducted into Cooperstown.
• Take a perfect game in bowling into the 6^th Frame. Being realistic here.
• See a Lakers NBA Finals game in person at Staples.
• Go to the first home game after La Salle opens a real arena.
• Walk the John T. Brush staircase, the only thing left on
  155^th Street
  of the Polo Grounds. Have to be careful here because it’s a housing project now.
• See the last game a team ever plays in an arena.
• Be part of a “Fire ______” chant at an arena.
• Have full-season tickets for one year for a team and go to every game.
• Sit courtside at an NBA game.
• Boo a draft-pick in person.
• Watch all 6 Rocky’s back to back.
• Get the Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn haircut one more time.
• Take a vacation where all I do is go to different baseball stadiums
• Find a “Giants bar” in any city I live in.
• See a NCAA Final 4 in person.
• Get myself a replica WWF Title belt that’s made like the real thing.
• Start an obscure chant at a sporting event, and actually get people to pick up on it.
• Build the perfect pool baseball field at the first house I buy.

I realize how difficult coming up with an exhaustive list is. You’ll notice there’s a huge lack of anything in-person regarding football games. That’s because I firmly believe football is best watched with your friends, in front of a huge television and a plate of deeply fried food, drinking beer, soda, and throwing pizza crusts to dogs.

I’m sure I missed a ton of stuff, but this was a decent start. Your thoughts?

The Thin Blue Line Between Pariah and Legend

Editor's Note: Like I mentioned, I don't want this to become a Giants blog. But the subtext for this is two different Giants players. Hopefully this reads as more of a reflection on heroes and pariahs than on these two guys specifically.

For about 10 years, the New York Giants were defined by two players. Both these guys had good years and bad. Each presided over very good teams, very bad teams, and most of all, very inconsistent teams. They both loved Jim Fassel. they both hated Tom Coughlin. They were both dogged by the criticism that neither of of them were big time players, and that the Giants problems directly stemmed from their lack of leadership. They retired a year apart, each having squabbled with the front office, the media, and the fans throughout the long careers in New York. They each left the game having played for no other teams, and owning numerous Giants records.

But today, one guy is considered an all-time great Giant and is revered by many as their favorite player of all time. Everytime he appears on the screen at Giants Stadium he is cheered loudly.

The other guy has only publicly set foot in the stadium once since his retirement. He was loudly booed. Anytime his picture shows up on the Jumbotron, fans react with hatred to a guy that holds the all-time rushing and all-time yardage record for the franchise.

So, despite their similar careers, what causes Michael Strahan and Tiki Barber to be viewed so differently by an entire fan base?

The faces of the 2000's Giants, now viewed through very different lenses.












As late as September of 2007, there was almost no difference in how both men were viewed. Tiki, coming off some career years, announced his retirement in the middle of the 2006 season. After the Giants were eliminated, he moved right into a job with NBC's Sports and News divisions. Michael Strahan was still technically with the Giants, but was still holding out a week before the season began, threatening to retire. He was coming off a season in which he missed 6 of the team's final 7 games, and created a media firestorm by screaming at a female reporter. Neither guy had won anything, save for an NFC Championship in 2000. They had both been openly critical of their head coach and new QB in 2004.

But then 2007 happened. Barber, freshly into his media gig, called his former teammate Eli Manning "comical" and seemed to be intent on making headlines ripping on his old team. He stood on the Giants opponent's sideline in a playoff game (admittedly that team did have his brother on it). Strahan meanwhile ended his holdout, was the leader of a surprising defense, and was instrumental in the Giants shocking Super 42 win. He retired right after, a Super Champion, and immortal in the eyes of Giants fans who'd just watched the most amazing season of their lives. And only 6 months earlier, he's been regarded as just as much of a primadonna baby as Tiki.

Fair or not, 2007 permanently changed the public perception of Michael Strahan...and Tiki Barber.





More important than these two guys is the point this illustrates about just how little can seperate being a hero and being a pariah. In 2005, Tiki was the number one guy in the hearts of Giants fans, and the one with the promising media career. Michael Strahan was just another all-star in New York, on the level of Jessie Armstead, and nowhere near Giant defensive legends of years gone by. If he retires in 2006, after what would have been 14 years in the NFL, he wouldn't be embraced nearly as much. Tiki on the other hand has ruined all the goodwill a 10 year career built up by a comment that came at the exact wrong time, sine it made him a punchline to the story of a title team. But nothing Tiki said makes his rushing totals less impressive, or his career any less spectacular. It just makes him less likeable.

And that's what makes being a legend to the fans so hard to define. Roger Clemens is by all accounts one of the greatest pitchers of all time, but none of the fanbases he's played for embrace him. Joe Namath on the other hand spun a mediocre career (look at the numbers) into a legacy, simply by making one bold prediction. There's no logical way to determine who ends up a "local legend" and who ends up just another guy, or worse, an outcast. A guy could play 15 great years and ruin it in retirement by being a jerk. Or a guy can be only slightly above average, but somehow capture the hearts of fans in a particular town and live on that forever. It's one of those great things about sports you can't quantify.


 

He's easily mocked, but in his day, Tiki Barber was one of the best backs in the league. More people remember his fumbles and controversial post-football career. 






Now that Tiki's coming back, I'm beginning to appreciate the player he was more. The guy was a warrior, who won the Giants games they had no business winning. Couple that with some of the QB's and O-Lines the guy played behind, and it's a miracle he had the success he did. I still don't forgive him for what he's dais in the past, but I do hope that one day he can show up at Giants Stadium and not be booed. Because he is one of the all-time great Giants, whether we wish he was or not.

Locking Out the Lockout

The last few days I've been toying around with  what my next column would be. Naturally, you would think it has to be about the lockout. Because right now, that's really the only relevant topic relating to the NFL. But then I realized something:

This readership of this blog is basically just my friends. No one needs to come here for hard-hitting news on labor negotiations. ESPN, Yahoo, Fox Sports, Deadspin, and all the others have that pretty well covered. If there's a big break in the story, I'm sure I'll have a comment on it. But until then, I 'm not going to write any more about the lockout itself. I intended for this blog to be the NFL, and more specifically about the joy I personally derive from being an NFL fan. Writing about revenue sharing, rookie wage scales, and the latest offers on the table isn't going to do that.

So for the rest of this offseason (however long that is) SundayAt1 will continue to be about the fun. I have some decent ideas lined up, and am anxious for your ideas or submissions, because frankly I'd like this blog to be more than just me. We had our first guest column already, and I think that worked well. So get some more in to me, and we can keep things rolling this spring and summer.

 

3 and Out- Lessons From The Last Work Stoppages in Each League:

This article was supposed to come out within hours of the expiration of the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement. Originally the CBA was set to expire at 12:00 tonight. But the NFL and the NFLPA agreed to extend the deadline 24 hours. Since it was assumed they were months away from a deal, some people of have seen this as an encouraging sign. To me, it’s a rather underhanded tactic: they’re pushing it to the weekend, when people don’t listen to talk radio or read newspapers. They’re hoping they can lessen the blow of the first NFL work stoppage in 24 years by doing it when people are working on their cars and going to the movies. Because make no mistake, 28 hours from now, the NFL owners will lock out the players.

I know I’ve been promising a more in-depth piece on the issues surrounding the lockout. And that’s coming, I promise. Starting Sunday I’ll attack some of these issues one by one. I also don’t want this blog to be about nothing but the labor situation, so I’ll still do some fun stuff as well. But today, I wanted to talk about the last major work stoppage in the other 3 leagues: the NHL, NBA, and Major League Baseball. As I thought about each one of them today, I thought about the fallout each league suffered, and how the NFL owners and players need to be careful to avoid a similar outcome from all of them. Because each league was severely damaged by their stoppages in a unique way, and the NFL cannot afford a repeat of any of them.

You can make the case the 2004-2005 lockout helped the NHL in the long-run. Missing a season is still a huge blow to your league. And a huge insult to your fans.

The One That Killed An Entire Season:

NHL Lockout, September 2004-July 2005

This one is admittedly the one where you can argue the lockout was good for the long-term future of the league. When hockey finally did come back, the fans more or less returned in full. They changed some rules to make the game more exciting to the casual fan, and a few new stars have taken hold of the game, with an electrifying brand of hockey.

But still, they missed an entire season.

From June of 2004 until October of 2005, almost a year and a half, there was no pro hockey in North America. It just fell off the map for an entire year. Hockey fans are usually die-hards, so they didn’t desert the sport, but ESPN dropped their package, and the NHL was left with the Outdoor Life Network (now Versus) showing basically everything until the last few games of the Stanley Cup Finals. If you weren’t looking for it, the next few NHL seasons would have been invisible to you on television.

The NFL is not in danger of losing TV rights, and they already have a hard cap in place (up until last year) but they very well could miss an entire season. And if that happens, all bets are off. Even if they only get a deal done in 10 for a game season next year, the damage will likely be minimal because people will still have 3 or 4 months of football. They can do some damage control, and go right back to injecting the methadone that is the NFL right until the collective veins of the American people. But if they miss an entire season, people are going to start to chaff, no matter what the issues in question are. I think people are approaching this with a fairly level head, until games start getting missed. Then the frustration of these two groups not getting a deal done, when they’ve known there would be an issue for years, will really start to stick in the fans’ craw.

Some fans came back angry in 1995. Even more stayed away.






The One That Really Pissed The Fans Off

MLBPA Strike, August 1994-March 1995

Maybe it’s because baseball is the National Pastime, and people have always pretended that when they were kids it was just a game and not a business (unless they were kids literally the month baseball was invented in the 1850’s, this isn’t true), but this strike specifically angered fans much more than any other sports work stoppage in history. The players walked out to avoid a salary cap, and ultimately ended up winning. The 1994 playoffs were cancelled. Baseball was basically destroyed in Montreal (the best team in baseball in 1994), Toronto (2 time defending champions), Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Minnesota. When baseball resumed in 1995, some fans stayed away, and others showed up to heckle players and throw things on the field. Outside of Cal Ripken in Baltimore, baseball in 1995 was basically one big hate-fest. There are people who still have not gotten back into baseball because of what happened in 1994. It wasn’t until the amazing season of 1998 that most fans got back on board with baseball.

It can’t be stressed enough how different a strike and a lockout are. Still, the NFL had a rabid fanbase and had realistically been our “National Game; for 30 to 40 years. So, people from 20-50 will likely feel just as scorned by a prolonged NFL work stoppage as people felt by baseball. Some teams, Jacksonville, Buffalo, San Diego and Arizona to name a few, might be permanently damaged. The NFL can’t totally control how the fans react to this current situation, but they need to realize the possibility exists. If fans are chanting about greed and throwing batteries when the NFL comes back, it’s indicative that they have not done a great job of public relations. Because for every fan screaming at the stadium, there’s probably going to be 5 or 10 more at home, not even watching the game, because they feel so burned. This time though, they won’t be screaming at players about greed, they’ll be screaming at owners about Personal Seat Licenses, 50 dollar parking fees, games on Thursday nights on premium channels, and treating the fans like cash registers.

This shot was the end of the NBA's run of the 1990's. A lockout followed immediately after. An offensive foul should have been called for a push-off.







The One That’s Eerily Similar

NBA Lockout, 1998-1999

In June of 1998, the NBA was riding high. Michael Jordan had just won his 6^th title in 8 years, in an epic series against Utah. The league was still filled with the huge stars of the 1990’s: Barkley, Shaq, Ewing, Malone, Stockton, Pippen, Rodman, Mourning, Reggie Miller, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson. Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan were young players on good teams. The NBA had been the dominant pro sports league since the end of the wildly successful Magic-Bird era of the 1980’s, right through the MJ era. Even with Jordan leaving the stage, the NBA still had reason to be optimistic about the future. Jordan had retired once before and the league still maintained an incredible level of popularity during his year and a half hiatus.

For the purposes of this piece, the reason for the lockout doesn’t really matter. But the gist is that the owners wanted a harder cap, and won in limiting player’s salaries (the “Max” deals guys get today). The NBAPA succeeded in getting some of those weird exceptions (like the Larry Bird Rule and the Mid-Level Exception) worked into the deal. It was seen as a win for the owners.

But when they came back for a 50 game season in January of 1999, the average fan’s outlook was suddenly different. Whereas before middle-aged white men made up the NBA’s base, suddenly they were deserting the game. Suddenly those stars from the 1990’s were being replaced by Allen Iverson, Lattrell Sprewell, Rasheed Wallace, and a lot of corn rows and tattoos. But here’s the thing: it wasn’t really about that. The NBA had always had elements of young black culture that 50 year old white men didn’t like, but it never seemed to hurt their enjoyment of the sport. Michael Jordan, with the shaved head, the earring, and the baggy shorts was every bit the trendsetter these guys were, but now it was rubbing people the wrong way. Throughout the next 10 years, a huge bit of “middle America” stopped watching the NBA. Although most wouldn’t trace it back to the 1998-1999 lockout, the fact is people lost the opportunity to get caught up in the excitement of the game, followed the labor stuff, and couldn’t see past the “thuggery” when the league came back.

This is where the NFL needs to be most careful. If this thing goes on too long, and players start making comments, it’s going to irritate people who watch Jay Leno. NFL players haven’t exactly been a model of civic behavior the last few years, and your Dad may start wondering why in the hell he’s watching these guys. That’s when you start hearing the excuses about the “purity of the college game” or how it’s just not as exciting as it used to be. Whether consciously or not, work stoppages make people look for an excuse not to care anymore. The NFL has been on a run comparable to the NBA in the 1990’s and it’s hard to imagine its popularity diminishing anytime soon. But give middle-ages fans enough time, and they’ll start to conjure up reasons why they don’t care as much anymore. The lockout may not be directly the reason for people to leave the flock, but it could be the spark that starts it.