Way to Know the Situation, Coach

How this gentleman keeps his job year after year is simply the greatest mystery in NFL history. This guy has done everything I'm about to talk about below, and keeps inventing new ways to make in-game mistakes.

 

Apologies for the lay-off in posting. I was away for a few days this week, which eliminated my mid-week post. Considering how action-packed the NFL landscape is the weeks after the Super Bowl, I’m sure you missed my analysis on all the news, like the NFL and the NFLPA agreeing to talk to each other with someone else in the room. That mediator has no authority to enforce a ruling, but still, I guess it’s a step in the right direction. Only a few thousand more steps in that same direction, and maybe we’ll have a season come September.

I’m not as smart as NFL coaches. Often times, I’ll watch a game and be arm chair coaching, only to come upon a decision that’s impossible to make. All of a sudden I’ll say “I’m glad it’s not my call.” Because despite all the football I watch, the years I’ve played, and the fact that I pretend to be an expert, most of the time the coach makes the right decision, and I’m either agreeing with them, or advocating for what would be the wrong call.

That said, there’s a few situations where I am constantly befuddled by what standard operating procedure for an NFL coach is. The reason coaches make the incorrect decision in some of these situations is simple- there’s just not many game situations in the NFL. In baseball, over the course of 3 or 4 seasons, a baseball manager presides over hundreds of games, and comes into contact with nearly every late-game scenario. But in the NFL, there are only 16 games a season. Logic dictates that at least 8 of those games won’t come down to the final few minutes. That means that coaches just don’t get a ton of experience in specific situations like they do in other sports. Like I said before, most of the time, I think they get their moves right, even if they don’t pay off in the end. But, here a few situations that coaches usually screw up, and are more often than not lauded by commentators.

This guy has had a ton of success as a coach, but let's be honest- his clock management sucks. He basically invented leaving points on the board before Halftime by going to a touchdown while inside of field goal range and running out of time. 













(All of these teams are just random teams, not indicative of real situations, or a specific team’s proclivity towards bungling this situation)

Situation: Dolphins trail Jets 23-14 with 3:15 to go. They have the ball on the Jets 38, 1^st and 10 with 2 Timeouts left.

What Most Teams Do: Continue to run their 2-minute offense, trying to get into the end zone. After all, you need two scores anyway, so why not go for the Touchdown first?

What Always Happens: Miami gets inside the Jets 30 with 2:45 to go. The Jets are playing prevent, trying to prevent a big play. Dolphins get short passes and QB sneaks to get into the red zone at 2:00 warning. Miami finally gets into the end zone with 1:15 to go and 2 time-outs. But since they waited so long, they have to onside kick. The Jets recover the onside kick and pound the ball into the line. Miami uses both timeouts, and the Jets run on 3^rd down.  Jets run the clock to 25 seconds and punt deep into Dolphin territory. Miami left with 65 yards to go with no time-outs and 15 seconds. Cue a play with 11 laterals. Jets win.

What They Should Do: KICK THE FIELD GOAL! As soon as Miami gets into comfortable field goal range, you take 1 shot deep and then take the points. As soon as Miami crosses the Jets 30, they should get the 3. With less than 3 time-outs, the most important thing here is avoiding the onside kick. That means scoring before the 2-minute warning. So in my scenario, Miami takes the 3 points with 2:38 to go. They then are able to kick away, and with the 2 minute warning and two time-outs, then can potentially get the ball back in decent field positions, with just about 1:50 to play. True, you have no time-outs and need a touchdown, but you’re in better field position and have more time. It’s still a low percentage situation, but still a hell of a lot better than relying on an onside kick.

Why They Blow It: Coaches are trained to get as close as possible, under any circumstance. The prospect of only being down 2 or 3 seems so much better than being down 6 or 7. But they neglect the clock. They think as long as we control the ball, we’ll be fine. But onside kicks only convert 20-30 percent of the time, depending on the year. Certainly it’s better to put your Defense on the field and get a stop, rather than relying on catching a lucky bounce.

Situation: Saints down 15 to Atlanta with 6:40 left in the 4^th. Quarter. New Orleans scores a touchdown, putting them down 9 with the Extra Point/ 2 Point Conversion pending.

What Most Teams Do:  Kick the Extra Point. That way you’re still only down one possession. You can always get the conversion after your next touchdown.

What Always Happens: New Orleans takes the extra point and goes down 8. They kick away and get Atlanta to punt with 4:00 to go. New Orleans goes into their 2-minute offense and moves down the field. Since this is their last drive, they slow down once they get deep into Atlanta territory. Ultimately they score with 45 seconds left and have to go for two. They miss the conversion and have to onside kick. See the previous situation for what happens next. Atlanta gets the ball and takes a knee. Game over. Saints lose.

What They Should Do: Saints go for two first. That way, New Orleans knows exactly where they stand. If they make the conversion, then they’re down 7. No complication there. If they miss it, they’re down 9, but at least they have 6 minutes to play accordingly. (Which if you’re paying attention, means go for the Field Goal first). New Orleans knows they’ll need a two-point conversion anyway, but the earlier they go for it, the more time they have to get two scores.

Why They Blow It: NFL coaches have a million decisions to make. They’d rather put one off if possible. And justifiably, the argument for going for the extra point there is that the other team still may score and change the situation. But honestly, if you’re down 8 or 9 that late and the other team scores again, you’re probably going to lose anyway. So go for the two, and then adjust.

 I really don't even need to explain why he's on here, do I?

Situation: Seahawks and Rams tied. Rams on Seattle 3 with 1:01 remaining. Seattle has all 3 time-outs. 1^st and Goal for St. Louis.

What Most Teams Do: Play your goal-line D like there’s no tomorrow. Burn time-outs. Hope to force St. Louis to a Field Goal.

What Always Happens: One of two things. Seattle either succeeds in holding St. Louis to a field goal, which comes with 30 seconds left and the Seahawks out of time-outs, or even worse, they stop the Rams twice, kill 2 time-outs, and watch St. Louis score with 45 seconds left. Either way, the Seahawks probably lose.

What They Should Do: Let them score. The Rams score on their first play with 58 seconds remaining. Now Seattle is down 7, but they have all of their time-outs left. This one is a little tougher because you’re down 7 as opposed to 3. But more than likely, you’re not stopping a team from getting 3 yards on 3 plays. So you concede you’re in a weaker position, and try to buy all the time you can.

Why They Blow It: Come on. You’re expecting an NFL Head Coach, who probably spent 100 hours on his game plan that week, to allow the other team to score in the final minute of the game? Very unlikely. Actually, there is a famous example of a coach doing this: Mike Holmgren allowing Terrell Davis to score in Super Bowl 32. Since it didn’t work, it never became part of the standard operating procedure.

SITUATION:  Anytime in the game. Giants have 3^rd and 7 from Eagles 40.

What Most Teams Do: Go for the first down. After all, it’s 3^rd and 7.

What Always Happens: Not always, but often enough: the Giants don’t pick it up. Since its 4^th and 7, New York has to punt. The ball goes into the end zone, and your punt has netted 20 yards.

What They Should Do: Run the ball. You’re going to go for it on 4^th down, as long as it’s manageable. So with Philly playing for the pass, run a draw and get it down 4^th and 3 at the 36. Now you’re in a manageable 4^th down situation.

Why They Blow It: Because, as an overriding theme, NFL coaches don’t think about the next play, the next drive, or the next quarter. They believe that everything they do will work if executed correctly, so they scheme themselves right out of options. That’s why, as Bill Simmons has suggested, coaches should have a guy who sits over his shoulder and who’s sole job is to manage clock situations and contemplate all the possible outcomes.

Situation: Bills up 7 on Raiders, 0:35 to go. Bills have the ball, Raiders out of time-outs.

What Always Happens: …..This is an impossible scenario. The Bills are never beating anyone this late in the game.

So, what do you think? The first two I am an advocate of and constantly scream about. The second two  I admittedly see the gray in. Do you disagree with any of my argument about what should be done? Have situations of your own? Let me know what you think.