Arbitrary Predictions: AFC

This is Obligatory And Pointless. Then again, so is my job.

Before and season starts, you have to make predictions. Most improved team. Biggest disappointment. AFC Finalist. MVP of the Pro Bowl. Now no one ever goes back and checks whether you knew your head from your ass 5 months later, but still, you gotta do it. Of course, I don’t know enough about 32 teams’ offseasons to make informed picks, so I basically pull things out of the air and then find reasons for them. But it’s fun, so let’s go. Tonight: the AFC. Tomorrow: The NFC.

 I’ll be back Friday or Saturday with my Week 1 preview and picks, etc. But for tonight, in advance of the Thursday Night kickoff, here are some thoughts I’m having this year in each division, as well as a projected order of finish.

I’m also listening to these two songs on a rotating basis as I write this, so if this is alternately mellow and then psychotic, well you’ll understand.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wpPk8qk3uQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrr2F3seAGU

AFC East:

Pick: New England

Historical Precedent: Atlanta Braves 1995-2005

I was all set to give the Braves precedent to Indianapolis until the severity of Manning’s injury was realized. The Braves, from the second they were placed into the NL East, dominated every year, and always won the division. About 2000 or so, it became chic to pick a new team every year. The thinking was this: if you nail it the right year, you look brilliant. Well, my theory is this: I’ll pick New England to win the division every year, and I’ll be right every year except one. Everyone else can pick new teams year and they’ll only be right once. The Jets are good, and knocked the Pats out of the playoffs last year. But just for the regular season, New England has to be penciled in for 12 wins, and I think the Jets come up just shy of that.

Order of Finish:

New England

Jets-Wildcard- (They're gonna keep having to win road playoff games until they can post a better record than the Patriots)

Miami

Buffalo

AFC North:

Pick: Baltimore

Historical Precedent:  2006 and 2009 Steelers

Another incredibly tough division to call. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are both very good, and at each other’s heels. What does surprise me is that Baltimore has only actually won the division twice in the last 10 years- actually only twice ever. That said, Pittsburgh hasn’t had strong seasons after their Super Bowl wins in 2005 and 2008, so coming off a loss in the big one in 2010, they could be primed for another let down.

Order of Finish:

Baltimore

Pittsburgh -Wild Card

Cleveland

Cincinatti (may win 0 football games).

AFC South :

Pick: Tennessee

Historical Precedent: The 1996-1997 San Antonio Spurs

Tennessee is the pick here for the simple fact that I don’t trust Houston. They’re now the golden boys and every time they are the trendy pick, they fall flat on their face. I still don’t believe they can play defense. Tennessee may be the team that makes the fewest mistakes and becomes the surprising division champion there’s always at least one of every year.

The historical precedent is about the Colts. The Spurs were a perennial powerhouse in the ‘90’s. David Robinson got hurt early in the 1996 season, the Spurs went 20-62, won the lottery and got Tim Duncan. They won 4 titles in 10 years after that. Seeing the parallel here? Could this be a “luck-y” year for Peyton Manning to be hurt?

Order of Finish:

Tennessee

Houston

Indianapolis (this assumes Manning misses from 6-16 games) 

Jacksonville

AFC West:

San Diego

Historical Precedent: 2006 and 2009 Chargers

The last two times the Chargers underwhelmed, they won 13 and 14 games the next year, respectively. The Chiefs were a nice story last year, but there’s little reason to believe San Diego is not the team to beat in the AFC West this season. I like the Raiders to be a bit better, but not quite ready to make the leap yet. They’ll probably be better than whoever grabs the South though.

Order of Finish:

San Diego

Oakland

Denver

Kansas City (someone always goes first to worst)

AFC Wild Card::

Pittsburgh over Tennessee

Baltimore over Jets

AFC Divisional Playoffs:

Baltimore over San Diego

New England over Pittsburgh

AFC Championship Game:

Baltimore ovr New England